The 2026 Guinea-Bissau presidential election, rescheduled for December 6 following the November 2025 coup that deposed incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and installed a military transitional government, features a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with Fernando Dias da Costa and Embaló holding the narrowest leads amid low probabilities for all others. Dias da Costa, backed by the Party for Social Renewal and elements of previously excluded opposition networks, benefits from positioning as a post-coup alternative. Embaló draws from his prior term and Madem G15 base, while José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá appeal to narrower veteran and regional constituencies. Consolidation around any frontrunner hinges on coalition-building, military alignment, and ECOWAS-mediated stability efforts ahead of the vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Fernando Dias da Costa 12.1%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.6%
Baciro Djá 1.6%
$338,901 ปริมาณ
$338,901 ปริมาณ
Fernando Dias da Costa
12%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
12%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Baciro Djá
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
1%
Mário da Silva Júnior
1%
Siga Batista
1%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Fernando Dias da Costa 12.1%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.6%
Baciro Djá 1.6%
$338,901 ปริมาณ
$338,901 ปริมาณ
Fernando Dias da Costa
12%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
12%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Baciro Djá
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
1%
Mário da Silva Júnior
1%
Siga Batista
1%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 Guinea-Bissau presidential election, rescheduled for December 6 following the November 2025 coup that deposed incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and installed a military transitional government, features a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with Fernando Dias da Costa and Embaló holding the narrowest leads amid low probabilities for all others. Dias da Costa, backed by the Party for Social Renewal and elements of previously excluded opposition networks, benefits from positioning as a post-coup alternative. Embaló draws from his prior term and Madem G15 base, while José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá appeal to narrower veteran and regional constituencies. Consolidation around any frontrunner hinges on coalition-building, military alignment, and ECOWAS-mediated stability efforts ahead of the vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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