Recent forecasts from global and regional models indicate substantial cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rain over Guangzhou on August 31, limiting afternoon heating and keeping the daily maximum near or below the 33 °C seasonal average. This atmospheric setup—driven by a persistent low-level trough and northeasterly flow—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C. Differences among these outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can shave several degrees from peak readings depending on when cloud breaks occur. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the highest temperature.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 31?
33°C 26%
32°C 23%
34°C 20%
35°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
16%
32°C
23%
33°C
26%
34°C
25%
35°C
11%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 26%
32°C 23%
34°C 20%
35°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
$346 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$190 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$30 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
31°C
$12 ปริมาณ
16%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
23%
33°C
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
34°C
$71 ปริมาณ
25%
35°C
$1 ปริมาณ
11%
36°C or higher
$12 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models indicate substantial cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rain over Guangzhou on August 31, limiting afternoon heating and keeping the daily maximum near or below the 33 °C seasonal average. This atmospheric setup—driven by a persistent low-level trough and northeasterly flow—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C. Differences among these outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can shave several degrees from peak readings depending on when cloud breaks occur. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the highest temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$662วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models indicate substantial cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rain over Guangzhou on August 31, limiting afternoon heating and keeping the daily maximum near or below the 33 °C seasonal average. This atmospheric setup—driven by a persistent low-level trough and northeasterly flow—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C. Differences among these outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can shave several degrees from peak readings depending on when cloud breaks occur. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the highest temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$662วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global and regional models indicate substantial cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rain over Guangzhou on August 31, limiting afternoon heating and keeping the daily maximum near or below the 33 °C seasonal average. This atmospheric setup—driven by a persistent low-level trough and northeasterly flow—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C. Differences among these outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can shave several degrees from peak readings depending on when cloud breaks occur. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the highest temperature.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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