Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 ปริมาณ
$86,048 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 ปริมาณ
$86,048 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$2,311 ปริมาณ
No
11°C
$2,016 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$3,903 ปริมาณ
No
13°C
$4,444 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$17,819 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$11,839 ปริมาณ
Yes
16°C
$9,105 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$12,910 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$11,490 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$3,214 ปริมาณ
No
20°C or higher
$6,998 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,048วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,048วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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