Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on August 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 22?
34°C 46%
33°C 42%
32°C 9%
35°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 22, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
9%
33°C
42%
34°C
46%
35°C
7%
36°C
5%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 46%
33°C 42%
32°C 9%
35°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 22, 2026
29°C or below
$51 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$51 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$41 ปริมาณ
2%
32°C
$56 ปริมาณ
9%
33°C
$132 ปริมาณ
42%
34°C
$235 ปริมาณ
46%
35°C
$105 ปริมาณ
7%
36°C
$20 ปริมาณ
5%
37°C
$46 ปริมาณ
<1%
38°C
$96 ปริมาณ
<1%
39°C or higher
$367 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,017วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,017วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies including ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a maximum temperature in Madrid of 33–34°C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the near-even market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. A weakening high-pressure ridge and gradual influx of cooler Atlantic air after recent hotter days (35–38°C earlier in the week) are expected to limit further warming, while clear skies and light winds support strong daytime heating. Historical climatology shows mid-to-late August highs averaging near 32–34°C with a downward seasonal trend, and model consensus remains tight within a 2–3°C range due to limited synoptic variability. Updated runs from AEMET and global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact peak and steer trader sentiment ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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