Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 ปริมาณ
$107,795 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 ปริมาณ
$107,795 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
36°C or below
$446 ปริมาณ
No
37°C
$2,814 ปริมาณ
No
38°C
$10,114 ปริมาณ
No
39°C
$23,679 ปริมาณ
No
40°C
$26,166 ปริมาณ
No
41°C
$15,024 ปริมาณ
Yes
42°C
$12,824 ปริมาณ
No
43°C
$7,517 ปริมาณ
No
44°C
$6,817 ปริมาณ
No
45°C
$1,980 ปริมาณ
No
46°C or higher
$413 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,795วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,795วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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