Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,461 ปริมาณ
$57,461 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,461 ปริมาณ
$57,461 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
$2,512 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$3,917 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$1,908 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$2,935 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$4,969 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$12,436 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$11,867 ปริมาณ
Yes
28°C
$6,069 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$3,907 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$3,651 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$3,291 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,461วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,461วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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