Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 4?
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,169 ปริมาณ
$65,169 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,169 ปริมาณ
$65,169 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
$436 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$445 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$511 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$1,447 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$2,355 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$3,839 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$4,629 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$19,697 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$6,800 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$15,502 ปริมาณ
No
28°C or higher
$9,508 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,169วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,169วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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