Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 ปริมาณ
$136,768 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 ปริมาณ
$136,768 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
11°C or below
$2,284 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$1,918 ปริมาณ
No
13°C
$14,289 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$29,558 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$15,355 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$16,848 ปริมาณ
Yes
17°C
$16,899 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$14,025 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$9,406 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$7,826 ปริมาณ
No
21°C or higher
$8,360 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$136,768วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$136,768วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย