Recent August 2026 employment data showed the U-3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing labor-market resilience amid mixed inflation signals. Federal Reserve June projections placed the median 2026 unemployment outlook at 4.3%, with the central tendency ranging 4.3–4.4%, reflecting expectations that growth and policy will contain any modest rise. Trader positioning on related contracts implies limited probability of breaching 5%, consistent with the current base rate near 4.1% and absence of broad deterioration in leading indicators. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 jobs release and September FOMC deliberations on the inflation-labor market balance, which could shift rate expectations and influence hiring dynamics through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$502,688 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
5.0%
10%
5.5%
6%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
5%
10.0%
4%
$502,688 ปริมาณ
5.0%
$133,825 ปริมาณ
10%
5.5%
$205,290 ปริมาณ
6%
6.0%
$79,379 ปริมาณ
7%
7.0%
$33,045 ปริมาณ
5%
10.0%
$51,150 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 employment data showed the U-3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing labor-market resilience amid mixed inflation signals. Federal Reserve June projections placed the median 2026 unemployment outlook at 4.3%, with the central tendency ranging 4.3–4.4%, reflecting expectations that growth and policy will contain any modest rise. Trader positioning on related contracts implies limited probability of breaching 5%, consistent with the current base rate near 4.1% and absence of broad deterioration in leading indicators. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 jobs release and September FOMC deliberations on the inflation-labor market balance, which could shift rate expectations and influence hiring dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$502,688วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 employment data showed the U-3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing labor-market resilience amid mixed inflation signals. Federal Reserve June projections placed the median 2026 unemployment outlook at 4.3%, with the central tendency ranging 4.3–4.4%, reflecting expectations that growth and policy will contain any modest rise. Trader positioning on related contracts implies limited probability of breaching 5%, consistent with the current base rate near 4.1% and absence of broad deterioration in leading indicators. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 jobs release and September FOMC deliberations on the inflation-labor market balance, which could shift rate expectations and influence hiring dynamics through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$502,688วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent August 2026 employment data showed the U-3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing labor-market resilience amid mixed inflation signals. Federal Reserve June projections placed the median 2026 unemployment outlook at 4.3%, with the central tendency ranging 4.3–4.4%, reflecting expectations that growth and policy will contain any modest rise. Trader positioning on related contracts implies limited probability of breaching 5%, consistent with the current base rate near 4.1% and absence of broad deterioration in leading indicators. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 jobs release and September FOMC deliberations on the inflation-labor market balance, which could shift rate expectations and influence hiring dynamics through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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