Trader consensus heavily favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—at 85%, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian targets in early April amid the US-Israeli campaign launched February 28, alongside intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon throughout the month, including drone attacks as recent as April 17 despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 8. Ongoing Lebanese operations, such as evacuations north of the Litani River and strikes in Nabatieh and Tyre areas, sustain this positioning, while no confirmed April actions target additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen beyond proxy engagements by Houthis. Lower odds for three or four-plus countries highlight barriers to further escalation, though ceasefire violations or proxy responses could shift dynamics before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
2 85%
≥4 9%
3 6%
$113,088 ปริมาณ
$113,088 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
2
85%
3
6%
≥4
9%
2 85%
≥4 9%
3 6%
$113,088 ปริมาณ
$113,088 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
2
$29,011 ปริมาณ
85%
3
$32,949 ปริมาณ
6%
≥4
$43,661 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—at 85%, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian targets in early April amid the US-Israeli campaign launched February 28, alongside intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon throughout the month, including drone attacks as recent as April 17 despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 8. Ongoing Lebanese operations, such as evacuations north of the Litani River and strikes in Nabatieh and Tyre areas, sustain this positioning, while no confirmed April actions target additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen beyond proxy engagements by Houthis. Lower odds for three or four-plus countries highlight barriers to further escalation, though ceasefire violations or proxy responses could shift dynamics before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$113,088วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—at 85%, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian targets in early April amid the US-Israeli campaign launched February 28, alongside intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon throughout the month, including drone attacks as recent as April 17 despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 8. Ongoing Lebanese operations, such as evacuations north of the Litani River and strikes in Nabatieh and Tyre areas, sustain this positioning, while no confirmed April actions target additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen beyond proxy engagements by Houthis. Lower odds for three or four-plus countries highlight barriers to further escalation, though ceasefire violations or proxy responses could shift dynamics before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$113,088วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Israel conducting military action against exactly two countries—Iran and Lebanon—at 85%, reflecting verified airstrikes on over 120 Iranian targets in early April amid the US-Israeli campaign launched February 28, alongside intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon throughout the month, including drone attacks as recent as April 17 despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 8. Ongoing Lebanese operations, such as evacuations north of the Litani River and strikes in Nabatieh and Tyre areas, sustain this positioning, while no confirmed April actions target additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen beyond proxy engagements by Houthis. Lower odds for three or four-plus countries highlight barriers to further escalation, though ceasefire violations or proxy responses could shift dynamics before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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