Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 69% implied probability in the IA-03 House race primarily because recent polling and race-rating shifts have highlighted the district’s narrow partisan balance and suburban realignment around Des Moines. Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn won reelection by just four points in 2024 in a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near even, and updated ratings from Cook Political Report moved the contest from Lean Republican to Toss-up earlier this year. Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott consolidated support after the June 2 primary and leads in head-to-head surveys against Nunn, reflecting stronger generic Democratic performance in the district amid national midterm dynamics. These factors have produced a competitive environment where late-cycle developments could still alter the outcome before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
77%
Republican Party
43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,199 ปริมาณ
77%
Republican Party
$1,020 ปริมาณ
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 69% implied probability in the IA-03 House race primarily because recent polling and race-rating shifts have highlighted the district’s narrow partisan balance and suburban realignment around Des Moines. Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn won reelection by just four points in 2024 in a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near even, and updated ratings from Cook Political Report moved the contest from Lean Republican to Toss-up earlier this year. Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott consolidated support after the June 2 primary and leads in head-to-head surveys against Nunn, reflecting stronger generic Democratic performance in the district amid national midterm dynamics. These factors have produced a competitive environment where late-cycle developments could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,219วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 69% implied probability in the IA-03 House race primarily because recent polling and race-rating shifts have highlighted the district’s narrow partisan balance and suburban realignment around Des Moines. Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn won reelection by just four points in 2024 in a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near even, and updated ratings from Cook Political Report moved the contest from Lean Republican to Toss-up earlier this year. Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott consolidated support after the June 2 primary and leads in head-to-head surveys against Nunn, reflecting stronger generic Democratic performance in the district amid national midterm dynamics. These factors have produced a competitive environment where late-cycle developments could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,219วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 69% implied probability in the IA-03 House race primarily because recent polling and race-rating shifts have highlighted the district’s narrow partisan balance and suburban realignment around Des Moines. Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn won reelection by just four points in 2024 in a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near even, and updated ratings from Cook Political Report moved the contest from Lean Republican to Toss-up earlier this year. Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott consolidated support after the June 2 primary and leads in head-to-head surveys against Nunn, reflecting stronger generic Democratic performance in the district amid national midterm dynamics. These factors have produced a competitive environment where late-cycle developments could still alter the outcome before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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