Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayoral race with 67.8% implied probability, ahead of Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú at 26.2%, as the October 4, 2026, municipal election approaches. Recent IEP polling from early September shows López Aliaga at 20% and Bruce at 17% among decided voters, with nearly half the electorate still undecided. López Aliaga benefits from prior visibility as the outgoing mayor and party infrastructure in the capital, while Bruce draws support as a sitting district mayor and experienced administrator. Legal challenges over López Aliaga’s earlier Senate election and eligibility were resolved by the JNE, clearing his path. The fragmented field of more than 20 candidates, including low-polling figures such as Francis Allison and Daniel Urresti, keeps the contest focused on the top two contenders in the final weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วRafael López Aliaga 68.1%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 26.2%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,643 ปริมาณ
$147,643 ปริมาณ
Rafael López Aliaga
68%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
26%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 68.1%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 26.2%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,643 ปริมาณ
$147,643 ปริมาณ
Rafael López Aliaga
68%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
26%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayoral race with 67.8% implied probability, ahead of Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú at 26.2%, as the October 4, 2026, municipal election approaches. Recent IEP polling from early September shows López Aliaga at 20% and Bruce at 17% among decided voters, with nearly half the electorate still undecided. López Aliaga benefits from prior visibility as the outgoing mayor and party infrastructure in the capital, while Bruce draws support as a sitting district mayor and experienced administrator. Legal challenges over López Aliaga’s earlier Senate election and eligibility were resolved by the JNE, clearing his path. The fragmented field of more than 20 candidates, including low-polling figures such as Francis Allison and Daniel Urresti, keeps the contest focused on the top two contenders in the final weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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