Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18–20 Duma election, leaving its position relative to the 5% threshold uncertain. SR, a systemic opposition party led by Sergey Mironov, has fielded candidates across all single-member districts and maintains a pro-war platform focused on veteran support and social policy. Exclusion of Yabloko from the national ballot and competition from New People and LDPR have redistributed limited protest and centrist votes, while administrative factors in Russia’s managed electoral system influence final tallies. Traders price the implied probability of clearing the threshold at 57.5% due to this narrow polling band and the precedent of Kremlin-aligned parties receiving variable institutional backing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว57% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
57% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18–20 Duma election, leaving its position relative to the 5% threshold uncertain. SR, a systemic opposition party led by Sergey Mironov, has fielded candidates across all single-member districts and maintains a pro-war platform focused on veteran support and social policy. Exclusion of Yabloko from the national ballot and competition from New People and LDPR have redistributed limited protest and centrist votes, while administrative factors in Russia’s managed electoral system influence final tallies. Traders price the implied probability of clearing the threshold at 57.5% due to this narrow polling band and the precedent of Kremlin-aligned parties receiving variable institutional backing.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18–20 Duma election, leaving its position relative to the 5% threshold uncertain. SR, a systemic opposition party led by Sergey Mironov, has fielded candidates across all single-member districts and maintains a pro-war platform focused on veteran support and social policy. Exclusion of Yabloko from the national ballot and competition from New People and LDPR have redistributed limited protest and centrist votes, while administrative factors in Russia’s managed electoral system influence final tallies. Traders price the implied probability of clearing the threshold at 57.5% due to this narrow polling band and the precedent of Kremlin-aligned parties receiving variable institutional backing.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in the party-list vote ahead of the September 18–20 Duma election, leaving its position relative to the 5% threshold uncertain. SR, a systemic opposition party led by Sergey Mironov, has fielded candidates across all single-member districts and maintains a pro-war platform focused on veteran support and social policy. Exclusion of Yabloko from the national ballot and competition from New People and LDPR have redistributed limited protest and centrist votes, while administrative factors in Russia’s managed electoral system influence final tallies. Traders price the implied probability of clearing the threshold at 57.5% due to this narrow polling band and the precedent of Kremlin-aligned parties receiving variable institutional backing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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