The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.8%. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García withdrew following the primary filing deadline, advancing unopposed in the March 2026 primary amid criticism over the succession process. Republican Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in this Chicago-anchored district, while independent Chris Getty and others draw limited support in available polling. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, candidate health event, or sharp national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$61,281 ปริมาณ
$61,281 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$61,281 ปริมาณ
$61,281 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$45,182 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$16,099 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.8%. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García withdrew following the primary filing deadline, advancing unopposed in the March 2026 primary amid criticism over the succession process. Republican Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in this Chicago-anchored district, while independent Chris Getty and others draw limited support in available polling. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, candidate health event, or sharp national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,281วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.8%. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García withdrew following the primary filing deadline, advancing unopposed in the March 2026 primary amid criticism over the succession process. Republican Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in this Chicago-anchored district, while independent Chris Getty and others draw limited support in available polling. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, candidate health event, or sharp national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,281วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.8%. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García withdrew following the primary filing deadline, advancing unopposed in the March 2026 primary amid criticism over the succession process. Republican Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in this Chicago-anchored district, while independent Chris Getty and others draw limited support in available polling. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, candidate health event, or sharp national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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