Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in March 2026 with over 73 percent of the primary vote in Illinois' 15th congressional district, a rural area with a Republican Partisan Voter Index near R+20 that favored Donald Trump by roughly 40 points in the prior presidential election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democrat Jennifer Todd. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors, including the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$37,437 ปริมาณ
$37,437 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$37,437 ปริมาณ
$37,437 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,364 ปริมาณ
95%
Democratic Party
$18,074 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in March 2026 with over 73 percent of the primary vote in Illinois' 15th congressional district, a rural area with a Republican Partisan Voter Index near R+20 that favored Donald Trump by roughly 40 points in the prior presidential election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democrat Jennifer Todd. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors, including the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$37,437วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in March 2026 with over 73 percent of the primary vote in Illinois' 15th congressional district, a rural area with a Republican Partisan Voter Index near R+20 that favored Donald Trump by roughly 40 points in the prior presidential election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democrat Jennifer Todd. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors, including the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$37,437วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in March 2026 with over 73 percent of the primary vote in Illinois' 15th congressional district, a rural area with a Republican Partisan Voter Index near R+20 that favored Donald Trump by roughly 40 points in the prior presidential election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democrat Jennifer Todd. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural factors, including the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such reversals uncommon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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