Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, backfilling tunnel entrances and leaving the program largely dormant with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization activities. The IAEA reports ongoing denial of inspector access to affected facilities, preventing verification of the roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile, while satellite imagery and official statements show limited reconstruction and no evidence of rapid breakout capability in the coming months. Stalled negotiations under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and unresolved conflict further constrain near-term advances, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test or weapon remains improbable before 2027. Plausible shifts could include accelerated use of surviving centrifuges or material at undeclared sites like Pickaxe Mountain if diplomacy collapses or internal policy changes, though significant technical and access barriers persist in the short resolution window.