The Democratic Party holds an 87.5% implied probability in the LA-02 House election market, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan composition and filing dynamics ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, encompassing New Orleans and portions of Baton Rouge, carries a strong Democratic lean with a partisan voting index above D+17, consistent with incumbent Troy Carter's 2024 performance. Only Democratic candidates—Carter and Renada Collins—have qualified, with the August 7 filing deadline passed and no viable Republican challengers emerging. Recent Supreme Court action on the state's congressional map and subsequent legislative redistricting have preserved the seat's majority-Black character by concentrating Democratic voters there, limiting crossover potential under Louisiana's majority-vote system. These structural factors, combined with Carter's fundraising advantage and incumbency, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLA-02 House Election Winner
LA-02 House Election Winner
$42,188 ปริมาณ
$42,188 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
6%
$42,188 ปริมาณ
$42,188 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,055 ปริมาณ
88%
Republican Party
$20,134 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds an 87.5% implied probability in the LA-02 House election market, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan composition and filing dynamics ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, encompassing New Orleans and portions of Baton Rouge, carries a strong Democratic lean with a partisan voting index above D+17, consistent with incumbent Troy Carter's 2024 performance. Only Democratic candidates—Carter and Renada Collins—have qualified, with the August 7 filing deadline passed and no viable Republican challengers emerging. Recent Supreme Court action on the state's congressional map and subsequent legislative redistricting have preserved the seat's majority-Black character by concentrating Democratic voters there, limiting crossover potential under Louisiana's majority-vote system. These structural factors, combined with Carter's fundraising advantage and incumbency, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,188วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds an 87.5% implied probability in the LA-02 House election market, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan composition and filing dynamics ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, encompassing New Orleans and portions of Baton Rouge, carries a strong Democratic lean with a partisan voting index above D+17, consistent with incumbent Troy Carter's 2024 performance. Only Democratic candidates—Carter and Renada Collins—have qualified, with the August 7 filing deadline passed and no viable Republican challengers emerging. Recent Supreme Court action on the state's congressional map and subsequent legislative redistricting have preserved the seat's majority-Black character by concentrating Democratic voters there, limiting crossover potential under Louisiana's majority-vote system. These structural factors, combined with Carter's fundraising advantage and incumbency, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,188วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds an 87.5% implied probability in the LA-02 House election market, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan composition and filing dynamics ahead of the November 3, 2026 primary. Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, encompassing New Orleans and portions of Baton Rouge, carries a strong Democratic lean with a partisan voting index above D+17, consistent with incumbent Troy Carter's 2024 performance. Only Democratic candidates—Carter and Renada Collins—have qualified, with the August 7 filing deadline passed and no viable Republican challengers emerging. Recent Supreme Court action on the state's congressional map and subsequent legislative redistricting have preserved the seat's majority-Black character by concentrating Democratic voters there, limiting crossover potential under Louisiana's majority-vote system. These structural factors, combined with Carter's fundraising advantage and incumbency, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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