Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory at 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited opposition in the November 3 jungle primary, including Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus minor Republican entrants, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Johnson's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns in northwest Louisiana sustain this positioning ahead of the December 12 runoff if needed. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, major scandal, or health event to alter the fundamentals before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
$11,997 ปริมาณ
$11,997 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$11,997 ปริมาณ
$11,997 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$3,671 ปริมาณ
95%
Democratic Party
$8,326 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory at 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited opposition in the November 3 jungle primary, including Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus minor Republican entrants, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Johnson's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns in northwest Louisiana sustain this positioning ahead of the December 12 runoff if needed. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, major scandal, or health event to alter the fundamentals before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,997วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory at 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited opposition in the November 3 jungle primary, including Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus minor Republican entrants, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Johnson's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns in northwest Louisiana sustain this positioning ahead of the December 12 runoff if needed. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, major scandal, or health event to alter the fundamentals before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,997วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+17, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory at 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited opposition in the November 3 jungle primary, including Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich plus minor Republican entrants, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Johnson's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns in northwest Louisiana sustain this positioning ahead of the December 12 runoff if needed. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, major scandal, or health event to alter the fundamentals before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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