Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
16°C or higher 95%
6°C or below 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
49%
7°C
18%
8°C
9%
9°C
37%
10°C
26%
11°C
22%
12°C
40%
13°C
20%
14°C
34%
15°C
5%
16°C or higher
95%
16°C or higher 95%
6°C or below 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
7°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
8°C
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
9°C
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
10°C
$13 ปริมาณ
26%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
12°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
34%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
16°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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