No new pathogen has achieved sustained human-to-human transmission on a global scale by September 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied odds against a pandemic. The prominent Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda has produced thousands of cases with regional expansion, yet WHO assessments rate global risk as low due to effective contact tracing, containment in Uganda, and absence of efficient airborne spread. Other events, including localized hantavirus and avian influenza detections, remain contained without meeting pandemic thresholds. Post-COVID surveillance enhancements and modeling of historical spillover patterns reinforce trader consensus, though rapid escalation in DRC transmission or emergence of a novel high-transmissibility strain could alter trajectories before year-end.