Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPutin's approval ratings continue to fall amid ongoing military and political pressures
Polling data released on July 10 showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings in early July 2026, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid military setbacks and political challenges. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in his long-term presidency.
Putin rejects peace talks despite intensified Ukraine strikes
On July 9, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's rejection of peace negotiations with Kyiv despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. This stance indicated his commitment to remain in power and continue the conflict, keeping market exit odds low.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid ongoing Ukraine war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 7, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as Russia faced military and political challenges. His continued active leadership and public presence maintained market confidence in his presidency, suppressing exit probabilities for all near-term dates.
Ukraine delivers final peace proposal warning of regime collapse if rejected
Ukraine presented a final peace proposal to the Kremlin, warning that rejection could lead to regime collapse. This heightened pressure on Putin's government amid military and economic challenges, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and exit probability.
Putin faces mounting internal and external pressures amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 drops to 17%6%
Putin gave an interview addressing military and economic challenges, including fuel shortages and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. These pressures intensified speculation about his political stability, contributing to further declines in market prices for his continued presidency.
Putin faces mounting economic and military pressures amid Ukraine conflict
Reports on July 6 highlighted Putin's precarious position due to economic decline, military stagnation, and declining public support, increasing market speculation about his political future but no immediate removal signs.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow on July 1, signaling continued active leadership despite pressures from the war in Ukraine and NATO concerns. This event reinforced perceptions of Putin’s firm grip on power, limiting market expectations of his imminent departure.
Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian oil refineries worsening fuel crisis
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck major Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid war tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, offering to help find a solution to the war, which briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold separate calls with former US President Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Separate calls between Putin and Zelenskyy with Donald Trump underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex geopolitical environment, maintaining market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds lengthy call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 5, Putin and former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call focusing on the Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic solutions. This high-profile diplomatic engagement briefly influenced market sentiment but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin’s presidency.
Putin holds 90-minute phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 5, 2026, Putin and US President Donald Trump held a lengthy phone conversation focusing on the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a sign of ongoing efforts to manage the conflict without leadership change, contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin's exit by mid-2027.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was noted but did not signal any change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin exaggerates Russian military gains in staged meeting to bolster image
On July 3 and 4, Putin and Russian military commanders made exaggerated claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, attempting to create a narrative of success despite battlefield realities. This effort aimed to maintain domestic support but highlighted the disconnect between official statements and facts, influencing market perceptions of Putin's political strength.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 dips to 23%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump spoke for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a significant development but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin’s presidency, thus having limited impact on the market.
Putin makes staged frontline visit, claims military advances in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Putin’s July 4 visit to a military installation and his public claims of progress in Ukraine were aimed at bolstering his image as a strong leader despite battlefield setbacks. This helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
June 30, 2027 drops to 25%11%
The Russian state polling agency VTsIOM reported a 3.5% drop in Putin’s approval rating to 66.9% and a 3.4% drop in trust to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, 2026. This decline reflected growing dissatisfaction with Putin’s leadership amid ongoing military difficulties in Ukraine, contributing to market speculation about his political future.
Poll Shows Steepest Drop in Putin's Approval Rating Since Start of War
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
State pollster VTsIOM published results showing Putin's approval and trust ratings suffered their sharpest weekly decline since February 2022, reflecting public frustration over fuel shortages.
Putin approval rating drops sharply after Ukrainian drone campaign
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percent to 66.9 percent in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline, marking the steepest decline since at least February 2022, which significantly impacted market confidence in his leadership.
Putin dismisses fuel shortages amid intensified Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 3, Putin publicly downplayed fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, signaling his intent to continue the conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his political resilience, contributing to low market odds for his exit in the near term.
Putin's approval rating drops sharply amid war fatigue and economic strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
State pollster VTsIOM reported Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percentage points to 66.9%, the steepest weekly decline since the war began, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic hardship and ongoing conflict. This decline contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, polls showed a notable decline in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid the protracted Ukraine war. This contributed to a slight increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, causing minor price fluctuations.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call discussing Ukraine war
On July 3, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no indication of Putin's removal, affecting market sentiment.
Putin’s approval rating sharply falls amid fuel crisis and war setbacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russian polling data released on July 3 showed a significant drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, the steepest since early 2022, amid worsening fuel shortages and military setbacks. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction but did not translate into immediate political change.
Putin shrugs off fuel shortages as he intensifies attacks on Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, Putin downplayed the severity of fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, while simultaneously ramping up military operations in Ukraine. This stance maintained perceptions of his control but also reflected ongoing domestic challenges, contributing to a slight decline in market confidence for Putin's continued presidency by late 2026.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov renews public call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly criticized Putin's Ukraine war policy and called for his resignation, marking a rare and significant dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This event increased market speculation about Putin's political vulnerability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Russia Launches Massive Retaliatory Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russia launched an exceptionally deadly 11-hour bombardment on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people, in what Moscow declared was direct retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $400,000 bet on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous user on the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager predicting that Vladimir Putin would no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet increased market attention and speculation about Putin's potential exit, influencing price movements in the market.
Fuel shortages worsen in Russia as officials ration supplies amid Ukrainian strikes
By early July 2026, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. This crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration but did not translate into credible threats to his presidency within the market's timeframe.
Large Polymarket Bets Placed on Vladimir Putin's Downfall by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
A newly created prediction market account placed massive wagers on Polymarket predicting Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026, driving up the implied probability of his exit.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and domestic challenges
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his ongoing control and reduced market speculation about imminent departure.
Putin chairs emergency Security Council meeting amid worsening war situation
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin chaired an emergency meeting at the weekend to address the deteriorating military situation, signaling potential instability in his leadership amid ongoing battlefield challenges.
Zelensky states Putin demands capture of Donbas by December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky's statement that Putin set a deadline for capturing Donbas intensified geopolitical tensions and contributed to market speculation about Putin's political survival.
Putin and military commanders exaggerate territorial gains in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On June 29, Putin and Russian military officials made inflated claims of territorial advances in Ukraine, attempting to bolster domestic support despite battlefield setbacks, influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Putin addresses United Russia party convention ahead of September elections
Putin spoke at the United Russia party convention, framing the upcoming legislative elections as a test of the political system's strength, reinforcing his position but also highlighting the political context ahead of the September 2026 elections.
Russian veteran Alexander Lunin detained after warning of military mutiny
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Alexander Lunin, a former volunteer fighter, publicly warned of possible military mutiny if Putin did not meet with him to address soldier abuses. His detention underscored rare public dissent within military ranks, increasing speculation about Putin's political stability and causing a rise in market prices for his exit by year-end.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes causing Russian fuel shortages amid unrest
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone attacks have led to significant fuel shortages in Russia, causing rationing and unrest, including an armed mutiny threat by a former soldier. This admission highlighted internal pressures on Putin's leadership, slightly increasing market speculation about his political stability.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, including Moscow's main refinery, intensified fuel shortages in Russia, creating a political crisis that put additional pressure on Putin's government and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted the domestic strain of the ongoing war and increased public frustration, which slightly raised speculation about Putin's political stability, impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin publicly acknowledges severe fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin admitted to fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which intensified public frustration and economic difficulties. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or leadership change, resulting in only minor market impact on the probability of Putin leaving office by year-end.
Putin delivers speech at United Russia party congress projecting strength
Putin's June 28 speech to the United Russia party congress emphasized Russia's military resolve and framed victory in Ukraine as inevitable, aiming to bolster domestic support and quell doubts about his leadership. This reassured markets about his political stability, limiting upward price movement for his exit.
Putin addresses fuel shortages, downplays crisis in Moscow interview
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow oil infrastructure, Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages but described the situation as not critical and promised swift resolution. This reassured some market participants about his control over domestic issues, tempering expectations of his removal.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin delivered a speech at the United Russia party congress, formally linking himself to the party and reinforcing his political dominance ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market expectations of his early departure.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin publicly associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure and stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing military resolve amid declining battlefield performance
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
In a speech to the United Russia Party Congress, Putin projected strength and military resolve despite Russia's declining battlefield performance in Ukraine. The speech aimed to bolster domestic support but underscored ongoing challenges, contributing to cautious market sentiment about his tenure.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone attacks caused Russian fuel shortages
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing, intensifying public frustration and economic difficulties, which contributed to market price movement.
Putin admits fuel shortages amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, signaling domestic challenges but downplaying their criticality, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political strength.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin admitted that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries caused significant fuel shortages and rationing across multiple regions, highlighting domestic vulnerabilities and increasing speculation about his political stability, which affected market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing war resolve ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Putin's June 28 speech at the United Russia Congress projected strength and military resolve, aiming to consolidate support ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which were expected to reinforce his power, thereby reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fuel shortages, creating political crisis for Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes knocked out up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, including Moscow's main refinery, leading to fuel shortages and a serious political crisis for Putin. This heightened doubts about his political stability and contributed to market price declines for his continued presidency.
Putin Admits Ukraine Drone Strikes Are Creating Fuel Shortages and Problems in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In a rare public admission of wartime setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure have caused fuel shortages and queues at petrol stations.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 26, 2026, Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move signaled continuity of leadership and reduced speculation about his imminent departure, contributing to stable or declining odds for his exit by year-end.
France Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker 'Deliver' in Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver' near Sicily, escalating European enforcement of sanctions on Russian energy exports and squeezing Moscow's war funding.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine
The lengthy phone conversation between Putin and US President Trump may have signaled diplomatic shifts, contributing to market speculation about Putin's political future amid ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Putin's expression at memorial sparks renewed health speculation
At Russia's Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, Putin's unusually rigid and expressionless face reignited global speculation about his health, fueling doubts about his physical condition and political stability, which influenced market sentiment.
Putin's frail appearance sparks health concerns amid psychological blow theory
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail in public appearances, fueling speculation about his health and causing some market participants to reassess the likelihood of his continued presidency through 2026. This contributed to a drop in market prices for his continued tenure by late 2026.
Suspect in killing of Putin critic arrested in Poland
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
The arrest of a suspect in Poland for the killing of a Russian artist critical of Putin heightened concerns about political stability and dissent within Russia, briefly increasing speculation about Putin's political future and impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health concerns
Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly frail appearance at the ASEAN Summit sparked health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, causing some market uncertainty about his tenure.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail appearances and speech issues
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail during public appearances, including slurred speech and physical symptoms, sparking widespread speculation about his health and ability to continue in office. This raised market uncertainty about his tenure, impacting prices for near-term exit outcomes.
Putin hosts ASEAN summit, projecting political stability amid challenges
On June 18, Putin made public statements following the Russia-ASEAN Summit, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic and economic cooperation, which helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin Announces 32-Hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire with Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a temporary ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to observe, temporarily easing frontline hostilities.
Putin Demands Oligarchs Donate to Russia's Dwindling Defense Budget
Putin met with Russia's business elites to demand financial contributions for the war effort, signaling both fiscal strain and his absolute authority over the country's oligarchs.
Former Loyalist Lawyer Ilya Remeslo Publishes Manifesto Calling for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
St. Petersburg lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly turned on Putin, calling him an illegitimate president over the dead-end war in Ukraine, before being placed in a psychiatric ward within 48 hours.
Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly calls for Putin's resignation and trial
Ilya Remeslo, a former Kremlin propagandist, published a manifesto denouncing Putin as an illegitimate president and calling for his resignation and prosecution as a war criminal. This rare public dissent highlighted cracks in Putin's support but did not lead to any immediate political change or removal.
Putin Warns Russia May Halt Gas Supplies to Europe Amid Middle East Energy Spike
President Vladimir Putin suggested Russia could preemptively stop gas exports to Europe to capitalize on rising energy prices and secure new markets, demonstrating his leverage and political stability.
Analysis highlights mounting pressures on Putin’s regime amid Ukraine war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A February 2, 2026 report detailed Russia’s military setbacks and internal challenges but concluded the Putin regime was far from collapse. This tempered market expectations for a near-term leadership change, keeping probabilities for Putin’s departure low.
Putin Faces Mounting Military and Economic Challenges Amid Ukraine War
By early February 2026, reports indicated Russia's military was suffering heavy losses and failing to make significant gains in Ukraine, while economic pressures persisted. These challenges increased speculation about Putin's political future but did not produce immediate changes, keeping market probabilities low.
Putin's credibility crumbles amid ongoing Ukraine war and diplomatic isolation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Analysts reported that Putin's credibility was eroding domestically and internationally due to the prolonged war and lack of progress in peace talks, increasing uncertainty about his long-term hold on power. However, no direct indication of imminent removal was observed, keeping market prices low.
Dozens of municipal deputies petition for Putin’s resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, signaling some political opposition. However, this did not translate into immediate political change or affect Putin’s hold on power, resulting in minimal market impact.
Moscow and St. Petersburg Deputies Publicly Call for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
On January 13, 2026, dozens of municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg signed an open letter demanding Vladimir Putin's resignation. This rare public dissent highlighted internal political pressures but did not immediately affect Putin's position, causing a minor market uptick reflecting increased uncertainty.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies publicly call for Putin’s resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An open letter signed by multiple municipal deputies demanded Vladimir Putin’s resignation as president. While significant as a sign of political dissent, this did not translate into immediate changes in Putin’s status or official announcements, resulting in only minor market impact.
European Commission open to direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission expressed willingness for direct dialogue with Putin to end the Ukraine war, but ongoing hostilities and sanctions keep the situation unresolved, maintaining Putin’s position for now.
European Commission opens door to future direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission publicly stated openness to direct talks with Putin to end the Ukraine war but emphasized that ongoing Russian attacks prevent such dialogue now. This indicated Putin’s continued role as Russia’s leader with no signs of stepping down.
Rumors swirl about health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov
Reports emerged about the poor health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, fueling speculation about internal stability within Putin's circle. While not directly about Putin, such rumors contributed to market uncertainty regarding the Kremlin's future leadership dynamics.
Putin begins 2026 in challenging position, rejects compromise peace
Analysis indicated Putin's reluctance to accept any peace deal that preserves Ukrainian statehood, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This contributed to the market's low probability of his removal by end of 2026.
Peace deal talks 90% complete but Kremlin remains distant
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
In early January 2026, officials claimed a peace deal with Russia was nearly complete, but Kremlin's position remained distant, with Putin justifying stalling due to a drone attack on his residence. This prolonged uncertainty kept market prices low and stable.
Peace talks in Paris show 90% deal completion but Kremlin stalls
Diplomatic efforts to end the war reached 90% completion, but Putin's Kremlin stalled progress, indicating Putin's continued control and no sign of stepping down, which maintained low market prices for his removal.
Zelensky announces peace deal is 90% ready in New Year speech
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated the peace deal with Russia is 90% ready, adding diplomatic pressure on Putin to engage, though Russian resistance remains strong.
Putin Delivers Defiant New Year's Address Vowing Victory in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
In his annual address, Putin projected confidence and unity, offering no signs of stepping down or accepting a compromise peace deal, which pushed down the probability of his removal by late 2026.
Putin Delivers Traditional New Year's Address Projecting Unity and Vowing Victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin used his annual address to rally the nation and project an image of stability and strength, dampening expectations of an imminent exit from the presidency.
Putin Signs Decree Mandating Year-Round Military Conscription
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Putin signed a decree to transition Russian conscription offices to year-round operations starting in 2026, signaling long-term preparation for sustained conflict and reinforcing his hold on power.
Putin delivers New Year's Eve address to Russian citizens
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
In his annual address, Putin made no mention of Ukraine or peace talks, reinforcing his continued leadership and suggesting no immediate plans to step down.
Putin delivers New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
In his New Year speech, Putin praised Russian soldiers and framed the war as vital for national survival, showing no signs of stepping down. This reinforced market confidence that he would remain president through 2026.
Putin delivers muted New Year address, vows victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In his New Year address, Putin emphasized confidence in victory and unity among Russians, avoiding mention of peace talks or resignation. This reinforced perceptions of his continued hold on power, contributing to a slight market decline in the probability of his removal.
Putin uses New Year’s Address to rally Russians around ongoing war effort
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin delivered a New Year’s address marking his 26th year in power, focusing on national unity and the war effort. This public reaffirmation of leadership further diminished expectations of his resignation within 2026.
Zelensky Denies Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin's Residence
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Ukraine denied Russian allegations of a drone strike targeting one of Putin's residences, an incident that threatened to derail peace talks and escalate tensions but did not result in physical harm to the Russian leader.
Russia alleges Ukrainian drone assassination attempt on Putin's residence
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russian officials claimed Ukraine launched 91 drones in an assassination attempt on Putin's residence, escalating tensions and impacting peace negotiations. This event caused a temporary market reaction, increasing perceived risks to Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal.
Trump and Zelenskyy Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Peace Plan After Productive Call with Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
High-stakes negotiations in Florida brought the sides closer to a potential peace deal, reinforcing the likelihood of a negotiated settlement rather than an abrupt, unmanaged regime change in Russia.
Putin holds strategic meeting with military leadership ahead of US-Ukraine talks
Putin met with Russian General Staff and commanders to discuss military operations just before the US President’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky, signaling no political change or resignation plans. This meeting aimed to project strength and continuity in leadership.
Putin agrees with Trump to continue Ukraine peace talks via working groups
Following a phone call initiated by US President Donald Trump, Putin agreed to continue efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through two working groups focusing on security and economic issues. This diplomatic engagement briefly raised hopes for a peaceful resolution but did not indicate Putin's removal, causing minor market fluctuations.
Putin and Trump discuss Ukrainian conflict, agree on working groups
A telephone conversation between Putin and U.S. President Trump resulted in agreement to continue diplomatic efforts via working groups on security and economic issues. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Putin and Trump agree to continue peace talks after Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Following a December 28, 2025, phone call, Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to further discussions on peace, but no breakthrough occurred. This maintained uncertainty but did not signal Putin's removal, keeping market prices steady.
Speculation Swirls That Putin Could Step Down Following a Post-War Peace Deal
Reports emerged suggesting that if a peace deal is finalized at the upcoming Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin might step down in favor of a more moderate successor like Dmitri Kozak, having secured his legacy.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev speaks at Miami peace talks
Dmitriev participated in December 2025 Miami peace talks with U.S. negotiators, signaling Russia's diplomatic engagement despite Putin's resistance to the 90% complete peace deal.
Russia Reports Slow but Steady Progress in Peace Talks with United States
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that talks with the U.S. regarding Ukraine were progressing constructively, signaling potential diplomatic stabilization rather than sudden regime disruption.
Putin Vows No More Invasions if West Treats Russia with Respect During Direct Line Marathon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
During his annual televised 'Direct Line' press conference, Vladimir Putin projected confidence, addressed economic concerns, and outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, signaling his intention to remain firmly in control.
Putin delivers 2025 Year-End Address reaffirming leadership and policy direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
In his December 19, 2025, address and press conference, Putin emphasized continuity in governance and Russia's strategic posture, signaling no intention to resign or step down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his departure.
Putin Delivers Year-End Address Emphasizing War Effort and Stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 19, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave a year-end address reinforcing his commitment to Russia's war efforts and national stability, signaling no intention to step down. This reassured supporters but did not alleviate concerns about his long-term hold on power, contributing to a slight market price decline.
Putin holds end-of-year Q&A, offers no compromise on Ukraine war
Putin's annual press conference emphasized his firm stance on the Ukraine conflict, rejecting any compromise peace deal. This reinforced market expectations that he would remain in power through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining prices for his removal.
Putin offers no compromise on Ukraine war in year-end press conference
In his December 19, 2025, annual press conference, Putin reiterated his uncompromising stance on the Ukraine conflict, signaling no intention to step down or seek peace concessions. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to stable prices.
ICC confirms Putin arrest warrant remains despite peace talks
The International Criminal Court stated that arrest warrants for Putin will remain active even if peace talks lead to amnesty, underscoring ongoing legal pressures but no immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin vows to seize Donbas region by any means amid upcoming peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On December 4, Putin publicly reaffirmed Russia's determination to seize the Donbas region by military or other means, signaling continued strong leadership and no indication of stepping down. This statement maintained market expectations of Putin's ongoing presidency.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects compromise in India interview
In an interview ahead of his India visit, Putin emphasized that Russia will end the Ukraine war only after achieving his original goals, rejecting compromise and demanding NATO rollback. This reinforced expectations of Putin's continued leadership and reduced speculation about his removal.
Analysis highlights regime transition without clear successor for Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Reports indicated that personnel changes and political restructuring in 2024-2025 marked the start of a regime transition concentrating authority in Putin's hands but delegating routine management, suggesting no imminent departure.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow, reiterates firm stance on Ukraine
Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reaffirming Russia's objectives in Ukraine and rejecting compromises on key demands, signaling his continued control and leadership role.
Putin warns Europe: Russia ready for war if provoked
On the eve of peace talks, Putin publicly warned Europe that Russia was prepared for war, signaling a hardline stance and consolidating his authority. This assertiveness likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down or being removed soon.
Putin Declares Russia Ready for War if Europe Seeks It
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Putin warned European leaders against sabotaging peace efforts and stated Russia was prepared for conflict if provoked, reinforcing his long-term grip on national defense.
Putin meets US envoys, warns Europe of war readiness
On December 2, Putin met with US special envoys and warned Europe that Russia was ready for war, emphasizing his control and resolve. This meeting underscored Putin's continued leadership and diminished market speculation about his removal.
Putin rejects US-Ukrainian peace proposal in Moscow meeting
During a December 2 meeting with a US delegation, Putin rejected the 28-point peace plan, maintaining maximalist war goals and showing no sign of political transition. This rejection likely contributed to market stability in low probability of Putin's exit.
Putin meets US envoys to discuss revised Ukraine peace proposal
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
On December 2, Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss a revised 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. This high-profile diplomatic engagement underscored Putin's active leadership role, with no signs of resignation or removal, influencing market sentiment downward slightly.
Resignation of Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Andriy Yermak resigned as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, signaling shifts in Ukraine's negotiating team during ongoing peace talks with Russia. This event affected market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory and Putin's political stability, influencing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Reports Reveal Dmitry Kozak Criticized Ukraine War in Letter to Putin Before Resigning
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Investigative reports detailed that former deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak strongly criticized the invasion of Ukraine in a letter to Putin before stepping down, highlighting the complete marginalization of critics within the regime.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak resigns after criticizing war in letter to Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Dmitry Kozak, a former deputy chief of staff and Kremlin insider, resigned after submitting a letter strongly criticizing the war in Ukraine. His departure removed a key figure who had influence and was seen as a moderate voice, potentially consolidating Putin's inner circle but also signaling internal dissent, which affected market perceptions of regime stability.
Putin doubles down on demands for Ukrainian territory ahead of US talks
Putin reiterated his core demands for Ukraine to withdraw from territories claimed by Russia, signaling no intention to compromise or step down. This hardened stance likely reinforced market views of Putin's continued presidency through 2026.
Putin attends CSTO summit, endorses US peace plan framework with conditions
At the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishkek on November 27, 2025, Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan as a framework, showing diplomatic engagement but no sign of stepping down. This event sustained market expectations of Putin's continued presidency.
Putin denies plans to attack another European nation, offers written guarantee
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
At the Collective Security Treaty Organisation summit in Kyrgyzstan, Putin dismissed claims of a planned invasion of Europe as "ridiculous" and "complete nonsense," reinforcing his stance as Russia's active leader and reducing speculation about his removal or resignation.
Putin says US-backed peace plan as framework is OK ‘in general’
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan framework but insisted on Russia's territorial demands, signaling his continued control and unwillingness to compromise fully. This stance suggested stability in his presidency, contributing to a decline in market expectations of his removal.
Putin Expresses Openness to US-Backed Peace Plan Framework
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
At the CSTO summit, Putin stated that a leaked US-backed peace plan could serve as a basis for future agreements, though he maintained firm territorial demands.
Putin Offers Written Guarantees of No Attack on Europe and Signals Openness to Peace Talks
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, Putin dismissed fears of a Russian invasion of Europe as ridiculous and expressed willingness to document this guarantee, while projecting confidence in Russia's geopolitical position.
Putin reaffirms readiness for war, rejects major concessions
At the CSTO summit, Putin declared Russia's readiness for war if Europe seeks it and rejected significant territorial concessions, signaling a continuation of his current policies. This stance likely decreased market expectations of his imminent departure, reflected in stable low prices for his removal.
Putin delivers brief address at Moscow stadium amid ongoing war
On November 23, 2025, Putin gave a notably short speech to a large crowd in Moscow, reaffirming his leadership during a critical phase of the Ukraine conflict. This event underscored his continued control and presence, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin cautiously endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin publicly stated that the US-proposed peace plan could serve as a framework for ending the Ukraine conflict, showing diplomatic engagement without conceding key demands. This tempered market expectations of a sudden leadership change, contributing to a further decline in the probability of Putin's removal.
Kremlin states Putin does not personally use AI but officials do
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
The Kremlin's statement that Putin himself does not use AI tools but officials do, alongside his call for a national AI task force, indicated ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down, contributing to market decline in exit probability.
Putin meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Moscow
On November 19, Putin met with China’s Premier Li Qiang, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and political stability, which likely contributed to the market settling at a lower probability of Putin’s exit by December 31, 2026.
Rising internal dissent and economic challenges in Russia raise questions about Putin's future
Reports highlighted growing dissatisfaction within Russia's political and military ranks and economic difficulties, fueling speculation about regime stability. However, no direct moves against Putin's presidency occurred, leading to minor market fluctuations but no significant price recovery.
Kremlin Acknowledges Brief Hospitalization of Putin Amid Fresh Health Rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged detailing Putin's 'swollen and sore' hands at a public event, alongside a Kremlin acknowledgment of a brief hospitalization in Moscow following a prior two-week absence from public life.
Putin reiterates commitment to constitutional term limits amid political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin emphasized maintaining the current two-term presidential limit despite political pressures, signaling no intention to extend or abruptly end his presidency. This reaffirmation contributed to a market price drop to 14% for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting reduced expectations of his early departure.
Putin approves sale of Citibank’s Russian operations amid Western sanctions
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
On November 12, Putin authorized the sale of Citibank’s remaining Russian operations, demonstrating continued control over economic decisions despite sanctions, which did not increase market expectations of his exit, reflected in a price around 15-16%.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers criticized Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, increasing speculation about Putin's political future but without immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Public appearances showing Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands fueled widespread rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to continue in office. This speculation increased uncertainty in the market about Putin's longevity as president, contributing to a decline in the probability of his remaining in office.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fell out amid diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Despite rumors of a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Kremlin downplayed the speculation, indicating potential internal power dynamics.
Kremlin Denies Reports of Rift Between Putin and Top Diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Speculation about a falling out between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov circulated but was officially denied by the Kremlin. This denial reduced fears of immediate political instability, contributing to a further decline in the market price for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Kremlin denies reports of fallout between Putin and top diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On November 10, 2025, reports emerged of a possible rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin officially denied these claims. The denial likely reassured markets about Putin's grip on power, contributing to a stabilization of the market price.
Kremlin Denies Rumors of Fallout Between Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
The Kremlin actively dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin had fallen out with his long-serving top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, signaling internal stability and dampening rumors of high-level regime fractures.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
New video footage showed Vladimir Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands with bulging veins, fueling renewed global speculation about his health and ability to govern. Despite Kremlin denials, this intensified uncertainty about Putin's future but did not trigger immediate market resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov absent from key Kremlin meetings amid speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's long-serving foreign minister, was notably absent from a key Kremlin Security Council meeting and excluded from Russia's G20 delegation, sparking rumors of a fallout with Putin. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but the event highlighted possible internal political instability, affecting market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Putin orders proposals for nuclear weapons test preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed various ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling a hardening stance amid escalating tensions. This assertive move likely reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued hold on power, contributing to a price decline in the 'Yes' outcome for his removal.
Putin Orders Officials to Prepare for Possible Resumption of Nuclear Testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
In response to statements from US President Donald Trump, Putin instructed Russian ministries and intelligence agencies to submit proposals for preparing nuclear weapons tests, reinforcing his grip on state security.
Putin Orders Proposals for Possible Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling heightened tensions and a show of strength. This move increased geopolitical risk perceptions but did not directly indicate imminent presidential change, leading to mixed market reactions and a subsequent price decline.
Putin orders proposals on preparing for nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, demonstrating his active leadership and strategic decision-making amid international tensions, with no indication of stepping down.
Putin orders preparations for possible nuclear weapons tests amid escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin's directive to prepare for nuclear weapons tests signaled a hardening stance and an attempt to project strength amid international pressure, reinforcing his control and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal, causing a price decline.
Putin Instructs Agencies to Prepare for Potential Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Following US statements on nuclear testing, Putin ordered Russian ministries and intelligence services to submit proposals for preparing nuclear tests, signaling a strong military posture.
Putin orders proposals on resuming nuclear tests in response to US actions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, Putin instructed Russian ministries to prepare proposals for resuming nuclear weapons tests, a direct response to US nuclear testing plans. This assertive stance indicated Putin's firm grip on power and strategic decision-making, reducing market speculation about his removal.
Putin awards developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin publicly recognized missile developers, emphasizing nuclear capabilities as a strategic priority amid growing international tensions.
Putin signs law moving Russia to year-round military draft
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin's signing of a law for year-round conscription demonstrated his consolidation of power and commitment to the war effort, signaling regime stability and reducing market expectations of his exit.
Putin praises new Russian nuclear weapons capabilities
On November 4, Putin publicly praised the capabilities of new nuclear weapons, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and reducing market speculation about his removal, contributing to a stabilization of the market probability around 20%.
Putin Announces Successful Test of Tsunami-Making Poseidon Nuclear Weapon
Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered underwater drone Poseidon, projecting military strength and deterrence amid geopolitical tensions.
Putin Boasts of Successful Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo Test
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Putin announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-propelled underwater drone, continuing aggressive nuclear saber-rattling to project authority and deter Western pressure.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov show contradictory positions on Ukraine war negotiations
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Conflicting statements from Putin and Lavrov about potential understandings with US President Trump on ending the Ukraine war created uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's political stability, leading to market volatility and a peak in perceived removal probability.
Putin holds government meeting via videoconference amid ongoing military operations
On October 29, Vladimir Putin conducted a government meeting via videoconference, reaffirming his active role in governance and military strategy, signaling no indication of stepping down or removal. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency, contributing to price stability.
Putin’s investment envoy continues talks with US officials amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 26, Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev engaged in talks with US representatives despite recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, signaling Putin’s intent to maintain international economic ties and political control, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin appears unsteady and sways during speech, fueling health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin was observed continuously swaying during a public appearance, reigniting widespread rumors about his health, including possible neurological conditions. This increased uncertainty about his ability to continue in office but did not lead to immediate market resolution.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit, imposes sanctions on Russian oil firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin citing lack of progress in peace talks and announced new sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies. This indicated deteriorating diplomatic relations and reduced expectations for a near-term political transition in Russia, causing a slight market price decline for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin Directs Major Strategic Nuclear Forces Exercise Amid Collapsed US Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin personally oversaw a massive strategic nuclear triad exercise involving land, sea, and air components, projecting military strength and control after a planned summit with US President Donald Trump fell apart.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The Russian government resigned, and President Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power dynamics, potentially allowing him to retain influence post-presidency. This event initially raised speculation about Putin's future but did not signal his immediate removal, causing a slight market price decrease for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of presidency as Ukraine war drags on
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
A Defense.info report detailed how the Ukraine war had become a military, economic, and strategic quagmire for Putin, marking the most precarious moment of his presidency.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects ceasefire without Ukrainian concessions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 21, 2025, Putin and Kremlin officials stated Russia would not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine met demands including neutrality and government change, signaling no political retreat or leadership change. This stance likely maintained market skepticism about Putin's imminent exit.
Heightened geopolitical tensions as Putin and Trump prepare for summit amid nuclear saber-rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 21, 2025, media discussed a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, alongside Putin's public emphasis on new nuclear weapons capabilities, increasing geopolitical tensions. This raised market speculation about Putin's political stability, temporarily boosting the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
The Russian government resigned following President Putin's announcement of constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling attempts to maintain influence beyond his presidential term. This political restructuring suggested Putin's intent to remain central to power, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Trump meets Zelensky; no immediate plans for Putin summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
US President Trump's meeting with Ukraine's Zelensky and the absence of a planned summit with Putin signaled ongoing geopolitical tensions without direct engagement, maintaining Putin's position and lowering chances of his removal.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling a potential post-presidential role for Putin and reducing chances of his immediate departure.
PACE votes to create dialogue platform with exiled Putin opponents; Russia opens criminal probe
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe initiated a platform for dialogue with exiled opponents of Putin, prompting Russia's FSB to open a criminal investigation accusing dissidents of plotting to seize power. This heightened political tensions but did not indicate imminent leadership change, causing a moderate market uptick.
Putin announces upcoming introduction of new weapons amid military tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's announcement of new strategic weapons and military footage release reinforced his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military capabilities, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Retired Russian General Publicly Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly demanded that Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare open dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin claims Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's announcement of territorial gains in Ukraine reinforced his control and strategic initiative, bolstering perceptions of his grip on power and reducing immediate expectations of his removal. This contributed to a stable market price around 18%.
Putin highlights historic significance of new nuclear missile systems
On November 4, 2025, Putin praised the development of nuclear-powered cruise missiles as historically significant for Russia, signaling his continued leadership and resolve amid ongoing conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his strong grip on power, contributing to market stability.
Putin Rejects 'Tsar' Label at Valdai Conference, Emphasizes Elected Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
During the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Putin rejected comparisons to historical emperors, asserting his status as an elected president serving a defined term, which reinforced his political narrative.
Putin Declares He Is No Tsar and Was Elected by the Russian People
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin rejected the 'tsar' label, emphasizing his constitutional mandate and electoral support, reinforcing his political legitimacy.
Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in Nine Years
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin signed a decree authorizing the conscription of 135,000 Russian citizens for the Fall 2025 cycle, demonstrating his ongoing commitment to maintaining military readiness and state control.
Putin Announces Russia Will Adhere to New START Nuclear Limits for One More Year
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily stick to the strategic nuclear warhead limits of the New START treaty for an additional year after its expiration in February 2026, signaling a calculated diplomatic posture.
Putin Declares Russia Will Adhere to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin announced that Russia will continue to abide by the New START treaty limits for a year after its February 2026 expiration, projecting stability and long-term strategic planning.
Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
Dmitry Kozak, a long-serving aide to President Putin who was critical of the invasion of Ukraine, resigned from his post. This departure removed a potential internal dissenting voice, further consolidating Putin's control.
Putin Orders Succession Plan Sourcing Next Leaders from Ukraine War Veterans
President Putin announced that the next generation of Russia's political leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, entrenching hard-line nationalism and securing a loyal future political class.
Trump Considers Legislative Pressure to Force Putin Back to Negotiations
Reports emerged that Trump had a bill ready to pressure Putin to return to peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin’s status. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s removal within the timeframe.
Trump Pivots on Need for Immediate Ukraine Ceasefire After Meeting Putin
Following his face-to-face talks with Putin, Trump reversed his stance, aligning with Russia's preference to bypass an immediate ceasefire in favor of direct, lengthy peace negotiations.
Trump and Putin Meet in Alaska Without Reaching Ukraine Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Trump and Putin ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering the market’s probability of his removal.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska amid health speculation and stalled peace talks
Putin met with Trump in Alaska for talks on Ukraine peace but no deal was reached. Observers noted Putin's limping and leg twitching, fueling health rumors. Despite increased scrutiny, Putin remained in power, and the market did not shift significantly on his removal probability.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The highly anticipated summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended without a concrete ceasefire agreement, but the meeting's optics treated Putin as an equal, stabilizing his domestic standing.
Putin’s Health Concerns Raised After Limping During Meeting with Trump
Vladimir Putin was observed limping and showing signs of physical distress during a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, fueling speculation about his health. Despite these concerns, no official indication of resignation or removal emerged, and the market remained cautious.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Concludes Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The highly anticipated bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended with no concrete agreement or ceasefire. However, the warm reception and red-carpet treatment of Putin on US soil was widely viewed as a major political and reputational victory for the Russian leader, reinforcing his stability.
Kremlin confirms upcoming Putin-Trump meeting amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, Kremlin officials announced an agreed meeting between Putin and Trump, raising hopes for diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Alaska on August 15
On August 6, Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement rather than a move toward Putin's removal. This maintained market expectations that Putin would remain in power through the near term.
No change in Putin's position despite US sanctions and diplomatic pressure
Despite ongoing US sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Putin remained firmly in power with no announcements of resignation or removal, maintaining market skepticism about his departure within the timeframe.
Trump and Putin agree to meet amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
Reports on August 6 indicated an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, suggesting diplomatic engagement but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency, thus having minimal impact on market expectations for his removal.
Putin unlikely to yield to US sanctions ultimatum, aims to capture Ukrainian regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin indicated Putin's determination to continue military objectives despite looming US sanctions, signaling no intention to resign or step down, which kept market probabilities for his exit low.
Putin doubts effectiveness of Trump's sanctions ultimatum
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's skepticism about the impact of the US sanctions deadline, reinforcing his stance to continue the war and maintain power, which kept market probabilities low for his early removal.
Putin signals no change in Russia's stance on Ukraine despite sanctions deadline
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Putin stated that Moscow hopes for future peace talks but affirmed that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, indicating no intention to step down or change course. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president through 2026.
Putin claims Russian army advancing along entire line of contact in Ukraine
On August 1, Putin publicly asserted military progress in Ukraine, reflecting his ongoing leadership and control over Russian military strategy. This public engagement indicated no change in his presidential status, maintaining market stability.
Unverified Reports of Coup Planning Within Russia’s General Staff Emerge
Reports surfaced alleging that some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These rumors increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
Trump Cuts 50-Day Deadline for Putin to Reach Ukraine Peace Deal in Half
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal on Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, signaling increased pressure on Putin. This political pressure did not translate into expectations of Putin leaving office, reflected in stable market prices.
Trump Shortens Ukraine Ceasefire Ultimatum for Putin to 10-12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically shortened his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to just 10 to 12 days, threatening severe secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Donald Trump shortens deadline for Putin to stop Ukraine war killings
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, US President Donald Trump gave Putin a 10-12 day deadline to halt killings in Ukraine, increasing international pressure on Putin. Despite this, Putin remained defiant, which maintained market skepticism about any imminent change in his presidency.
Trump Shortens Russia's Peace Deal Deadline to 10 to 12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
US President Donald Trump accelerated his ultimatum to Russia, shortening the deadline to agree to a ceasefire from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days under threat of severe tariffs. This escalation increased geopolitical tension but ultimately highlighted Putin's refusal to back down under Western pressure.
Trump shortens ultimatum for Putin to negotiate peace to 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reduced deadline for Putin to agree to peace negotiations, reflecting increased international pressure on Putin. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, and the market price remained stable or slightly declined.
Trump announces new peace deadline for Putin: 10-12 days to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Trump announced a new deadline for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing his previous 50-day deadline by 38 days. This intensified pressure on Putin and raised concerns about his ability to maintain control.
Trump shortens deadline for Putin to end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Trump publicly reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal in Ukraine to 10-12 days, signaling increased pressure but no indication of Putin stepping down, which kept market confidence low.
Putin attends funeral of Supreme Court Chief Justice Irina Podnosova
Putin's public attendance at the funeral of a top judicial figure on July 24 demonstrated his continued active role in state affairs, signaling no signs of stepping down or incapacitation, which supported market confidence in his presidency.
Putin and Trump hold joint appearance discussing Ukraine ceasefire
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint appearance in Alaska discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. This diplomatic failure may have contributed to market volatility.
Zelenskyy appoints Yulia Svyrydenko as new prime minister for war-weary Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister following Shmyhal's resignation. This leadership change in Ukraine may have affected market perceptions of stability and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Russian Military Faces Heavy Casualties and Economic Strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Reports indicated that Russian forces suffered heavy casualties and the economy was under strain, with reluctance from Putin to mobilize reserves. This military and economic pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin’s political future but did not signal immediate removal.
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Russian drone attack hit Kharkiv, damaging infrastructure and killing civilians. This military escalation increased instability and raised concerns about Putin's control over the war effort.
Putin unfazed by Trump's sanctions threats, vows to continue Ukraine offensive
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to continue the war in Ukraine despite threats of tougher sanctions from the US. This reinforced expectations that Putin would remain in power to pursue his military objectives, contributing to stable market pricing.
Putin vows to continue Ukraine war despite Western sanctions threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to keep fighting in Ukraine until his terms for peace are met, showing no sign of stepping down. This reinforced market sentiment that Putin would remain in power, stabilizing the price around 20-21%.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal resigns amid major government reshuffle
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tendered his resignation as part of a major government reshuffle, leading to a cabinet dissolution. This political change in Ukraine may have influenced market sentiment regarding the stability of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.
Putin vows to continue fighting in Ukraine despite Trump's threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin publicly rejected US President Trump's sanctions threats and affirmed his commitment to the Ukraine conflict, signaling regime stability and no indication of stepping down, which likely suppressed market expectations of his removal.
Ukraine's Prime Minister resigns amid major government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
While not directly related to Putin's presidency, the resignation of Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on July 15 amid wartime reshuffling reflected ongoing regional instability, indirectly influencing perceptions of Putin's regime stability and the market's outlook.
Trump threatens severe tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
US President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening very severe secondary tariffs starting at 100%. This increased international pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump claims Putin wanted peace in Ukraine, a reversal of stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Trump stated that Putin had previously expressed interest in peace in Ukraine, a significant shift from his earlier criticism of Putin. This created uncertainty about Putin's intentions and stability.
Trump sharply criticizes Putin over Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump increased his criticism of Vladimir Putin following unsuccessful calls to end the war in Ukraine, signaling continued US pressure but no immediate political change in Russia. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's removal.
Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit fired and found dead
Putin removed Roman Starovoit from his ministerial post on July 7; hours later, Starovoit was found dead, reportedly by suicide. This event underscored elite instability but did not indicate any change in Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty.
US Senators Propose Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Energy Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal proposed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to impose broad tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase economic pressure on Putin’s regime. This heightened economic pressure was expected to challenge Putin’s hold on power but did not immediately affect his presidency.
US proposes sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
The US proposed a sanctions package under the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to broadly target Russia's energy sector and impose secondary sanctions. This increased pressure on Russia's economy but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency, contributing to a slight market dip.
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit Found Dead Hours After Being Fired by Putin
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead from an apparent suicide shortly after being dismissed by President Vladimir Putin, signaling tightening control and high stakes within the Kremlin elite.
Detention of Russian elite figures signals Kremlin tightening control
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 7, two major Russian figures, Konstantin Strukov and Viktor Strigunov, were detained on corruption charges, indicating a crackdown within the elite. This suggested internal instability but no direct threat to Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Putin attends pro-Kremlin 'Everything for Victory' forum amid elite detentions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin forum promoting victory over Ukraine, coinciding with the Kremlin's crackdown on elites, including detentions of major business and security figures. This reinforced Putin's control but highlighted internal tensions, slightly affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Trump signals possible meeting with Putin amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Reports emerged that US President Donald Trump might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss Ukraine peace efforts, raising some market speculation about political shifts but no direct indication of Putin leaving office.
Putin attends 'Everything for Victory' forum to boost volunteer recruitment amid waning support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at increasing volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling efforts to bolster domestic support amid challenges. This event underscored Putin's continued active role and control, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin attends pro-war 'Everything for Victory' forum amid recruitment push
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin event aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict and maintain power. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 18% for his departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin pushes for increased volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment, signaling concerns about domestic support for the war effort. This indicated Putin's intent to maintain his grip on power and continue the conflict, which likely kept market confidence in his presidency stable.
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