Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the US will avoid defaulting on its debt by 2027, driven by Congress's unbroken history of raising or suspending the debt limit 78 times since 1960 amid brinkmanship but never allowing missed payments. The debt ceiling, reinstated at $36.1 trillion in January 2025 and raised to $41.1 trillion by mid-2025, currently accommodates federal borrowing at around $38-39 trillion, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing further buffer until potential X-Dates in late 2026 or 2027 per CBO projections of persistent deficits. Recent April debt updates show steady increases without crisis signals, underscoring bipartisan incentives to avert global financial catastrophe. Realistic shifts could stem from extreme partisan gridlock during appropriations or midterms, failing to pass a continuing resolution or debt limit hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$14,769 ปริมาณ
$14,769 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$14,769 ปริมาณ
$14,769 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the US will avoid defaulting on its debt by 2027, driven by Congress's unbroken history of raising or suspending the debt limit 78 times since 1960 amid brinkmanship but never allowing missed payments. The debt ceiling, reinstated at $36.1 trillion in January 2025 and raised to $41.1 trillion by mid-2025, currently accommodates federal borrowing at around $38-39 trillion, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing further buffer until potential X-Dates in late 2026 or 2027 per CBO projections of persistent deficits. Recent April debt updates show steady increases without crisis signals, underscoring bipartisan incentives to avert global financial catastrophe. Realistic shifts could stem from extreme partisan gridlock during appropriations or midterms, failing to pass a continuing resolution or debt limit hike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,769วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the US will avoid defaulting on its debt by 2027, driven by Congress's unbroken history of raising or suspending the debt limit 78 times since 1960 amid brinkmanship but never allowing missed payments. The debt ceiling, reinstated at $36.1 trillion in January 2025 and raised to $41.1 trillion by mid-2025, currently accommodates federal borrowing at around $38-39 trillion, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing further buffer until potential X-Dates in late 2026 or 2027 per CBO projections of persistent deficits. Recent April debt updates show steady increases without crisis signals, underscoring bipartisan incentives to avert global financial catastrophe. Realistic shifts could stem from extreme partisan gridlock during appropriations or midterms, failing to pass a continuing resolution or debt limit hike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,769วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that the US will avoid defaulting on its debt by 2027, driven by Congress's unbroken history of raising or suspending the debt limit 78 times since 1960 amid brinkmanship but never allowing missed payments. The debt ceiling, reinstated at $36.1 trillion in January 2025 and raised to $41.1 trillion by mid-2025, currently accommodates federal borrowing at around $38-39 trillion, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing further buffer until potential X-Dates in late 2026 or 2027 per CBO projections of persistent deficits. Recent April debt updates show steady increases without crisis signals, underscoring bipartisan incentives to avert global financial catastrophe. Realistic shifts could stem from extreme partisan gridlock during appropriations or midterms, failing to pass a continuing resolution or debt limit hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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