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Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano

icon for AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano
Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano

Jay Feely 78%

Joseph Chaplik 12.9%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita <1%

John Trobough <1%

Polymarket

$424,473 Vol.

Jay Feely 78%

Joseph Chaplik 12.9%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita <1%

John Trobough <1%

Polymarket

$424,473 Vol.

Jay Feely

$8,407 Vol.

78%

Joseph Chaplik

$10,601 Vol.

19%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$5,229 Vol.

1%

John Trobough

$3,940 Vol.

1%

Jason Duey

$3,248 Vol.

1%

Brandon Sowers

$11,493 Vol.

<1%

Matt Gress

$48,959 Vol.

<1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$10,716 Vol.

<1%

Todd Graham

$8,070 Vol.

<1%

Kari Lake

$7,612 Vol.

<1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,928 Vol.

<1%

Gina Swoboda

$5,092 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$223,238 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trump's endorsement has positioned Jay Feely as the clear frontrunner in the July 21 Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District, reflected in the 78% market consensus. Feely's substantial fundraising edge and background as a former NFL player and broadcaster have consolidated support in this open seat race. Recent Axios reporting on Joseph Chaplik's May social media comments criticizing Feely's assistance to Haitian immigrants intensified intraparty tensions and highlighted immigration divides, contributing to Chaplik's trailing 19% odds. Chaplik's resignation from the state House to focus on the campaign and his prior attendance record have drawn scrutiny from rivals. The remaining candidates trail far behind with minimal visibility or resources, leaving little room for shifts absent major late developments before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$424,473
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trump's endorsement has positioned Jay Feely as the clear frontrunner in the July 21 Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District, reflected in the 78% market consensus. Feely's substantial fundraising edge and background as a former NFL player and broadcaster have consolidated support in this open seat race. Recent Axios reporting on Joseph Chaplik's May social media comments criticizing Feely's assistance to Haitian immigrants intensified intraparty tensions and highlighted immigration divides, contributing to Chaplik's trailing 19% odds. Chaplik's resignation from the state House to focus on the campaign and his prior attendance record have drawn scrutiny from rivals. The remaining candidates trail far behind with minimal visibility or resources, leaving little room for shifts absent major late developments before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$424,473
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 14 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Jay Feely" sa 78%, sinusundan ng "Joseph Chaplik" sa 19%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 78¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 78% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay naka-generate ng $424.5K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 25, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano," i-browse ang 14 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay "Jay Feely" sa 78%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 78% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Joseph Chaplik" sa 19%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.