California voters will decide Proposition 5, a legislative constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot that would eliminate simultaneous successor elections in recalls of statewide officers, fill resulting vacancies under standard procedures, and permit recalled officials to seek the office again while barring appointments. With the voter guide recently distributed and no public polling showing a decisive shift, traders assign a 60% probability to rejection, consistent with historical resistance to constitutional changes absent strong momentum or unified advocacy. Supporters including the League of Women Voters and Common Cause argue the measure restores majority rule by preventing low-plurality replacements, while opponents including the Election Integrity Project California contend it reduces voter control over vacancies. The measure’s legislative origin and early-stage campaign have yet to generate the broad coalitions often needed to overcome baseline skepticism toward altering recall mechanics.