The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
8% tsansa
$164,069 Vol.
$164,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% tsansa
$164,069 Vol.
$164,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$164,069Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$164,069Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed's hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.4-3.6% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks and resilient growth from AI-related investment, has shifted the median SEP dot plot toward holds or hikes by year-end rather than easing. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.3%, further reduce the case for abrupt loosening. Traders price in at most one hike for the remainder of 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that baseline conditions do not support emergency action. A sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial stress could still alter this path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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