Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies, including consensus runs from regional models, point to a daytime maximum of 16°C in Buenos Aires on August 5 amid stable late-winter conditions. Southern Hemisphere winter reduces solar insolation, while prevailing westerly flows and possible early cloud cover or light precipitation limit daytime heating, aligning with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional climatology that typically yields highs of 15–17°C in early August. Traders assign the highest implied probability (56.5%) to 16°C because model guidance clusters near this value with low variability and no strong warm-air advection expected. The secondary weighting on 15°C reflects modest downside risks from increased cloudiness or timing of any frontal passage, while the smaller share for 17°C accounts for potential brief clear periods. Official station observations will determine the exact high and resolve the market.