**The primary barrier remains the Senate's 60-vote cloture threshold for overcoming a filibuster.** H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) and subsequent versions such as S. 1383 passed the House multiple times, including April 2025 and February 2026, but have not advanced in the Senate despite Republican control. Democrats have withheld the necessary cross-aisle support, and at least one Republican (Sen. Murkowski) has opposed proceeding, leaving the bill short of the votes required for passage. Recent developments reinforce the stall. As of early August 2026, the Senate prioritized avoiding a government shutdown ahead of the September 30 funding deadline over advancing the measure, and attempts to attach SAVE Act provisions to the NDAA or budget reconciliation have not succeeded. With Congress entering recess and limited session time remaining in 2026, traders view enactment before year-end as improbable absent a sudden procedural breakthrough or major shift in Senate dynamics. The current 93.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched legislative gridlock.