US diplomatic efforts to broker a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire continue without agreement on territorial issues, as Russia demands formal recognition of its control over Crimea and parts of the Donbas while Kyiv maintains its territorial integrity claims. Recent trilateral talks involving US envoys have produced no breakthrough, consistent with longstanding American policy against recognizing forcible annexations and statutory restrictions on such actions. Traders see little prospect of formal US recognition of Russian sovereignty before 2027 given these entrenched positions, Ukrainian resistance, and the absence of major battlefield or diplomatic shifts. A sudden negotiated settlement conceding de jure status or a significant change in US congressional majorities could still alter the trajectory.