The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$125,784 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
33%
John Brennan
38%
James Clapper
24%
Tom Homan
20%
Brandon Johnson
26%
James Comey
17%
Letitia James
25%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Adam Schiff
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Anthony Fauci
7%
Kash Patel
7%
Lisa Cook
7%
Hillary Clinton
6%
John Kerry
6%
Pam Bondi
5%
Lee Jun-seok
27%
Joe Biden
4%
Bill Clinton
4%
Barack Obama
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
51%
Susan Rice
44%
$125,784 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,977 Vol.
33%
John Brennan
$6,677 Vol.
38%
James Clapper
$2,658 Vol.
24%
Tom Homan
$29,882 Vol.
20%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 Vol.
26%
James Comey
$9,244 Vol.
17%
Letitia James
$1,340 Vol.
25%
Loretta Lynch
$472 Vol.
11%
Gavin Newsom
$24,621 Vol.
9%
Adam Schiff
$6,790 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$257 Vol.
7%
Anthony Fauci
$8,290 Vol.
7%
Kash Patel
$153 Vol.
7%
Lisa Cook
$598 Vol.
7%
Hillary Clinton
$15,653 Vol.
6%
John Kerry
$127 Vol.
6%
Pam Bondi
$1,546 Vol.
5%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 Vol.
27%
Joe Biden
$2,047 Vol.
4%
Bill Clinton
$434 Vol.
4%
Barack Obama
$2,857 Vol.
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$275 Vol.
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,190 Vol.
51%
Susan Rice
$262 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$125,784Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$125,784Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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