The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWho will be arrested before 2027?
$125,784 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
33%
John Brennan
38%
James Clapper
24%
Tom Homan
20%
Brandon Johnson
26%
James Comey
17%
Letitia James
25%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Adam Schiff
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Anthony Fauci
7%
Kash Patel
7%
Lisa Cook
7%
Hillary Clinton
6%
John Kerry
6%
Pam Bondi
5%
Lee Jun-seok
27%
Joe Biden
4%
Bill Clinton
4%
Barack Obama
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
51%
Susan Rice
44%
$125,784 Vol.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
33%
John Brennan
38%
James Clapper
24%
Tom Homan
20%
Brandon Johnson
26%
James Comey
17%
Letitia James
25%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Adam Schiff
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Anthony Fauci
7%
Kash Patel
7%
Lisa Cook
7%
Hillary Clinton
6%
John Kerry
6%
Pam Bondi
5%
Lee Jun-seok
27%
Joe Biden
4%
Bill Clinton
4%
Barack Obama
4%
Benjamin Netanyahu
51%
Mahmoud Khalil
51%
Susan Rice
44%
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The second Trump administration's Department of Justice priorities shape trader consensus on high-profile arrests before 2027, with markets pricing elevated probabilities for former intelligence and national security figures such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and James Comey amid ongoing reviews of prior investigations and public statements. Immigration enforcement has driven a sharp rise in ICE arrests and deportations since early 2025, though these primarily involve noncitizens rather than the named political targets. Lisa Cook's odds reflect scrutiny of Federal Reserve officials, while lower-priced options like Barack Obama highlight structural barriers including term limits and historical norms against prosecuting former presidents. Scheduled congressional oversight hearings, potential new indictments, and any shifts in special counsel appointments within the next six months remain key catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 2027 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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