Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 1160-1279 total posts by Elon Musk on X in April 2026, driven by his sustained high-volume pace averaging 35-45 daily through April 16, including a blistering 115-post day on April 13 fueled by Tesla's FSD expansion to the Netherlands, xAI's Grok 420 topping reasoning benchmarks, SpaceX Starship updates, and pointed political commentary on DEI and media. This mid-month surge, atop steady engagements blending tech announcements and cultural debates, underpins the frontrunning bins, with closely matched 12-14% odds reflecting uncertainty over the remaining 14 days. Key swing factors include event-driven spikes from Tesla Q1 earnings or launches versus potential lulls in his unpredictable posting rhythm, where real capital bets capture crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi1240-1279 14.1%
1200-1239 12.4%
1160-1199 12.4%
1280-1319 10.3%
$7,700,405 Hac.
$7,700,405 Hac.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
4%
1120-1159
10%
1160-1199
12%
1200-1239
12%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
6%
1360-1399
4%
1400-1439
4%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
1%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
1240-1279 14.1%
1200-1239 12.4%
1160-1199 12.4%
1280-1319 10.3%
$7,700,405 Hac.
$7,700,405 Hac.
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
4%
1120-1159
10%
1160-1199
12%
1200-1239
12%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
10%
1320-1359
6%
1360-1399
4%
1400-1439
4%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
1%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
1%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Çözümleme Kaynağı
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Çözümleme Kaynağı
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 1160-1279 total posts by Elon Musk on X in April 2026, driven by his sustained high-volume pace averaging 35-45 daily through April 16, including a blistering 115-post day on April 13 fueled by Tesla's FSD expansion to the Netherlands, xAI's Grok 420 topping reasoning benchmarks, SpaceX Starship updates, and pointed political commentary on DEI and media. This mid-month surge, atop steady engagements blending tech announcements and cultural debates, underpins the frontrunning bins, with closely matched 12-14% odds reflecting uncertainty over the remaining 14 days. Key swing factors include event-driven spikes from Tesla Q1 earnings or launches versus potential lulls in his unpredictable posting rhythm, where real capital bets capture crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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