Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, driven by tracking estimates from Boxoffice Pro ($35-45 million range) and independent forecasters ($38.4 million), reflecting a projected 44-50% drop from its $69 million sophomore frame—a steeper decline than the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% hold. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by an A- CinemaScore and 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score but lagging PostTrak metrics (79% positive, 62% definite recommend versus 94%/82% for the 2023 hit), plus poor critical reception (42% RT critics), tempers legs amid competition from Project Hail Mary holdovers and new entries like Lee Cronin's The Mummy. An upset above $44 million would require surging family turnout or competitors underperforming, with final grosses reporting Sunday, April 19.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi"Süper Mario Galaxy Filmi" 3. Hafta Sonu Gişesi
"Süper Mario Galaxy Filmi" 3. Hafta Sonu Gişesi
<44m 95.5%
44-48m 3.6%
>52m <1%
48-52m <1%
$38,436 Hac.
$38,436 Hac.
20 Nis 2026
<44m
96%
44-48m
4%
48-52m
<1%
>52m
1%
<44m 95.5%
44-48m 3.6%
>52m <1%
48-52m <1%
$38,436 Hac.
$38,436 Hac.
20 Nis 2026
<44m
$3,397 Hac.
96%
44-48m
$5,091 Hac.
4%
48-52m
$8,075 Hac.
<1%
>52m
$21,874 Hac.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, driven by tracking estimates from Boxoffice Pro ($35-45 million range) and independent forecasters ($38.4 million), reflecting a projected 44-50% drop from its $69 million sophomore frame—a steeper decline than the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% hold. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by an A- CinemaScore and 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score but lagging PostTrak metrics (79% positive, 62% definite recommend versus 94%/82% for the 2023 hit), plus poor critical reception (42% RT critics), tempers legs amid competition from Project Hail Mary holdovers and new entries like Lee Cronin's The Mummy. An upset above $44 million would require surging family turnout or competitors underperforming, with final grosses reporting Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Hacim
$38,436Bitiş Tarihi
20 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, driven by tracking estimates from Boxoffice Pro ($35-45 million range) and independent forecasters ($38.4 million), reflecting a projected 44-50% drop from its $69 million sophomore frame—a steeper decline than the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% hold. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by an A- CinemaScore and 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score but lagging PostTrak metrics (79% positive, 62% definite recommend versus 94%/82% for the 2023 hit), plus poor critical reception (42% RT critics), tempers legs amid competition from Project Hail Mary holdovers and new entries like Lee Cronin's The Mummy. An upset above $44 million would require surging family turnout or competitors underperforming, with final grosses reporting Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Hacim
$38,436Bitiş Tarihi
20 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, driven by tracking estimates from Boxoffice Pro ($35-45 million range) and independent forecasters ($38.4 million), reflecting a projected 44-50% drop from its $69 million sophomore frame—a steeper decline than the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% hold. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by an A- CinemaScore and 90% Rotten Tomatoes audience score but lagging PostTrak metrics (79% positive, 62% definite recommend versus 94%/82% for the 2023 hit), plus poor critical reception (42% RT critics), tempers legs amid competition from Project Hail Mary holdovers and new entries like Lee Cronin's The Mummy. An upset above $44 million would require surging family turnout or competitors underperforming, with final grosses reporting Sunday, April 19.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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