Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation evidenced by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady near 4.4%. The March FOMC decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with dot plot projections for modest cuts to a 3.4% median by year-end, supports this positioning, though high oil prices from geopolitical tensions have diminished near-term cut expectations to 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release could shift sentiment if data softens further.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiDeğişiklik yok 80%
25 baz puan indirim 10%
25 baz puan artış 3.6%
50+ baz puan düşüş 2.9%
$3,609,826 Hac.
$3,609,826 Hac.
29 Tem 2026
50+ baz puan düşüş
3%
25 baz puan indirim
10%
Değişiklik yok
80%
25 baz puan artış
4%
50+ baz puan artış
1%
Değişiklik yok 80%
25 baz puan indirim 10%
25 baz puan artış 3.6%
50+ baz puan düşüş 2.9%
$3,609,826 Hac.
$3,609,826 Hac.
29 Tem 2026
50+ baz puan düşüş
$159,598 Hac.
3%
25 baz puan indirim
$109,454 Hac.
10%
Değişiklik yok
$161,970 Hac.
80%
25 baz puan artış
$3,011,706 Hac.
4%
50+ baz puan artış
$167,131 Hac.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation evidenced by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady near 4.4%. The March FOMC decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with dot plot projections for modest cuts to a 3.4% median by year-end, supports this positioning, though high oil prices from geopolitical tensions have diminished near-term cut expectations to 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release could shift sentiment if data softens further.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Hacim
$3,609,826Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation evidenced by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady near 4.4%. The March FOMC decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with dot plot projections for modest cuts to a 3.4% median by year-end, supports this positioning, though high oil prices from geopolitical tensions have diminished near-term cut expectations to 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release could shift sentiment if data softens further.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$3,609,826Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 79.5% probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation evidenced by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady near 4.4%. The March FOMC decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, coupled with dot plot projections for modest cuts to a 3.4% median by year-end, supports this positioning, though high oil prices from geopolitical tensions have diminished near-term cut expectations to 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release could shift sentiment if data softens further.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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