With roughly half of April elapsed, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service surveys show 33 confirmed tornadoes across the US as of April 15—primarily EF0-EF1 with two EF2s from recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13—placing the pace below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182 for the month. This modest early tally, amid clustered activity like 13 tornadoes on April 2 in the Plains and Midwest, drives trader consensus toward 140–199 totals (68% implied probability across top bins), balancing Gulf moisture clashes with cool mid-level air against risks of a pattern shift to suppressed shear or zonal flow. Key differentiators include persistent jet stream support for supercells versus historical late-month lulls; watch SPC's 3–7 day outlooks for evolving convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm-relative helicity thresholds through month's end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
<140 11%
$38,432 Hac.
$38,432 Hac.
10 May 2026
<140
11%
140–169
31%
170–199
33%
200–229
10%
230–259
5%
260–289
18%
290–319
13%
320–350
22%
350+
6%
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
<140 11%
$38,432 Hac.
$38,432 Hac.
10 May 2026
<140
$8,909 Hac.
11%
140–169
$6,632 Hac.
31%
170–199
$427 Hac.
33%
200–229
$95 Hac.
10%
230–259
$92 Hac.
5%
260–289
$128 Hac.
18%
290–319
$258 Hac.
13%
320–350
$154 Hac.
22%
350+
$21,736 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With roughly half of April elapsed, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service surveys show 33 confirmed tornadoes across the US as of April 15—primarily EF0-EF1 with two EF2s from recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13—placing the pace below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182 for the month. This modest early tally, amid clustered activity like 13 tornadoes on April 2 in the Plains and Midwest, drives trader consensus toward 140–199 totals (68% implied probability across top bins), balancing Gulf moisture clashes with cool mid-level air against risks of a pattern shift to suppressed shear or zonal flow. Key differentiators include persistent jet stream support for supercells versus historical late-month lulls; watch SPC's 3–7 day outlooks for evolving convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm-relative helicity thresholds through month's end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Hacim
$38,432Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With roughly half of April elapsed, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service surveys show 33 confirmed tornadoes across the US as of April 15—primarily EF0-EF1 with two EF2s from recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13—placing the pace below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182 for the month. This modest early tally, amid clustered activity like 13 tornadoes on April 2 in the Plains and Midwest, drives trader consensus toward 140–199 totals (68% implied probability across top bins), balancing Gulf moisture clashes with cool mid-level air against risks of a pattern shift to suppressed shear or zonal flow. Key differentiators include persistent jet stream support for supercells versus historical late-month lulls; watch SPC's 3–7 day outlooks for evolving convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm-relative helicity thresholds through month's end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Hacim
$38,432Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With roughly half of April elapsed, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service surveys show 33 confirmed tornadoes across the US as of April 15—primarily EF0-EF1 with two EF2s from recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13—placing the pace below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182 for the month. This modest early tally, amid clustered activity like 13 tornadoes on April 2 in the Plains and Midwest, drives trader consensus toward 140–199 totals (68% implied probability across top bins), balancing Gulf moisture clashes with cool mid-level air against risks of a pattern shift to suppressed shear or zonal flow. Key differentiators include persistent jet stream support for supercells versus historical late-month lulls; watch SPC's 3–7 day outlooks for evolving convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm-relative helicity thresholds through month's end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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