Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys have confirmed around 42 tornadoes across the US, below the pace needed for the 1991–2020 historical average of 182, driving trader consensus toward the 170–199 bin at 34% implied probability while closely trailing the 140–169 outcome. Recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13–15, including an EF3 tornado in Wisconsin and multiple EF2s amid strong wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE), added over 18 twisters, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (22.1%) and 260–289 (22%). Differentiating factors include persistent jet stream patterns enabling supercell thunderstorms versus fading shear; confirmation rates typically validate ~65% of preliminary local storm reports. Traders await Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final half of the month, which signal moderate severe risks amid neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayında ABD'de kaç Tornado var?
Nisan ayında ABD'de kaç Tornado var?
170–199 34%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
<140 8%
$38,439 Hac.
$38,439 Hac.
10 May 2026
<140
8%
140–169
38%
170–199
34%
200–229
11%
230–259
5%
260–289
23%
290–319
13%
320–350
20%
350+
6%
170–199 34%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
<140 8%
$38,439 Hac.
$38,439 Hac.
10 May 2026
<140
$8,916 Hac.
8%
140–169
$6,632 Hac.
38%
170–199
$427 Hac.
34%
200–229
$95 Hac.
11%
230–259
$92 Hac.
5%
260–289
$128 Hac.
23%
290–319
$258 Hac.
13%
320–350
$154 Hac.
20%
350+
$21,736 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys have confirmed around 42 tornadoes across the US, below the pace needed for the 1991–2020 historical average of 182, driving trader consensus toward the 170–199 bin at 34% implied probability while closely trailing the 140–169 outcome. Recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13–15, including an EF3 tornado in Wisconsin and multiple EF2s amid strong wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE), added over 18 twisters, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (22.1%) and 260–289 (22%). Differentiating factors include persistent jet stream patterns enabling supercell thunderstorms versus fading shear; confirmation rates typically validate ~65% of preliminary local storm reports. Traders await Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final half of the month, which signal moderate severe risks amid neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Hacim
$38,439Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys have confirmed around 42 tornadoes across the US, below the pace needed for the 1991–2020 historical average of 182, driving trader consensus toward the 170–199 bin at 34% implied probability while closely trailing the 140–169 outcome. Recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13–15, including an EF3 tornado in Wisconsin and multiple EF2s amid strong wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE), added over 18 twisters, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (22.1%) and 260–289 (22%). Differentiating factors include persistent jet stream patterns enabling supercell thunderstorms versus fading shear; confirmation rates typically validate ~65% of preliminary local storm reports. Traders await Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final half of the month, which signal moderate severe risks amid neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Hacim
$38,439Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys have confirmed around 42 tornadoes across the US, below the pace needed for the 1991–2020 historical average of 182, driving trader consensus toward the 170–199 bin at 34% implied probability while closely trailing the 140–169 outcome. Recent Midwest outbreaks on April 13–15, including an EF3 tornado in Wisconsin and multiple EF2s amid strong wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE), added over 18 twisters, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (22.1%) and 260–289 (22%). Differentiating factors include persistent jet stream patterns enabling supercell thunderstorms versus fading shear; confirmation rates typically validate ~65% of preliminary local storm reports. Traders await Storm Prediction Center outlooks for the final half of the month, which signal moderate severe risks amid neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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