**Canada’s federal election on April 28, 2025, produced a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.** By-elections held April 13, 2026, delivered the additional seats needed for a majority, which was confirmed shortly afterward. With a secure parliamentary majority in place and the next fixed-date election scheduled for October 2029 under the Canada Elections Act, there is no procedural requirement or political incentive for the governor general to dissolve Parliament before late June 2026. The two-week window remaining until June 30 offers little realistic opportunity for the sudden collapse of confidence, a lost supply vote, or an unforeseen crisis that would normally prompt a snap election call. Traders therefore assign near-certainty to the view that writs will not be issued by the deadline, reflecting the stable majority and absence of immediate triggers for an early contest. Only an extraordinary, unforeseen development within days could alter that consensus.