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Світ·Канада

Another Canada election called by June 30?

Market icon
Світ·Канада

Another Canada election called by June 30?

4% шанс
Polymarket

$78,392 Обс.

4% шанс
Polymarket

$78,392 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$78,392
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$78,392
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Another Canada election called by June 30?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 4% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 4¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 4%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Another Canada election called by June 30?» згенерував $78.4K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 24, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Another Canada election called by June 30?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Another Canada election called by June 30?» — 4% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 4% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Another Canada election called by June 30?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.