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Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Market icon

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

53% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ

Up

53% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,413
Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a 57% implied probability of Canada's population declining by Q4 2026 relative to Q4 2025, driven by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's 2026-2028 levels plan slashing temporary resident admissions to 385,000—43% below 2025 targets—and permanent resident caps at 380,000. Statistics Canada's March 18 estimates confirmed the first quarterly population drop on record, falling 103,504 to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, amid a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of flat growth underscores net migration slowdowns offsetting natural increase, with housing pressures and policy shifts sustaining downward momentum absent major reversals.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,413
Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — це щоденний ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції на те, чи ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? закриється вище ("Up") або нижче ("Down") за початкову ціну протягом вікна щоденний, вказаного в назві. Поточна ринкова ймовірність — 57% для "Down". Ціна 57% означає, що ринок колективно оцінює цей результат з ймовірністю 57%. Ціни оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі рухи ціни Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Акції правильного результату можна обміняти на $1 кожну після вирішення.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — це активний короткостроковий ринок на Polymarket. Торговий обсяг може швидко накопичуватися по мірі просування вікна щоденний — заходьте рано, щоб допомогти встановити шанси до закриття вікна.

Щоб торгувати на "Canada's population Up or Down this year?", вирішіть, чи ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET April 29 буде вищою ("Up") або нижчою ("Down") за ціну Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET January 27. Купуйте "Up" якщо вважаєте, що ціна зросте день до дня, або "Down" якщо впаде. Введіть суму та натисніть "Trade". Правильний результат — $1.00 за акцію. Неправильний — $0.

Поточна ймовірність для "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — 57% для "Down", що означає: спільнота Polymarket наразі оцінює ймовірність того, що ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? закриється down протягом цього вікна щоденний, як 57%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі дані цін Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Протягом дня шанси відображають настрої, що змінюються по мірі розгортання цінової дії. Повертайтеся частіше або торгуйте зараз, поки вікно не закрилося.

Ринок "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" вирішується порівнянням ціни Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET April 29 з опівднем ET January 27, використовуючи хвилинні свічки Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT. Якщо ціна April 29 опівдні вища — "Up"; нижча — "Down"; рівна — ринок вирішується 50-50. Деталі в розділі "Rules".