Trader consensus reflects an 83.7% implied probability against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, anchored by a court-ordered month-long stay on separatist petition signature validation issued April 10 following First Nations injunction hearings that began April 7. Despite the Alberta Prosperity Project's March 31 claim of surpassing the 177,732-signature threshold for a citizen initiative referendum on secession, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation challenges cite treaty rights violations, stalling progress amid ongoing collection until May 2. Recent Pollara polling shows separatism support at 27%, a five-year high but minority level unlikely to pass. Premier Danielle Smith opposes separation, with her government's October 19 referendum focusing on immigration controls and constitutional amendments for greater provincial autonomy, excluding independence. Constitutional secession barriers loom large.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$52,117 Обс.
$52,117 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$52,117 Обс.
$52,117 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 83.7% implied probability against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, anchored by a court-ordered month-long stay on separatist petition signature validation issued April 10 following First Nations injunction hearings that began April 7. Despite the Alberta Prosperity Project's March 31 claim of surpassing the 177,732-signature threshold for a citizen initiative referendum on secession, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation challenges cite treaty rights violations, stalling progress amid ongoing collection until May 2. Recent Pollara polling shows separatism support at 27%, a five-year high but minority level unlikely to pass. Premier Danielle Smith opposes separation, with her government's October 19 referendum focusing on immigration controls and constitutional amendments for greater provincial autonomy, excluding independence. Constitutional secession barriers loom large.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$52,117Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 83.7% implied probability against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, anchored by a court-ordered month-long stay on separatist petition signature validation issued April 10 following First Nations injunction hearings that began April 7. Despite the Alberta Prosperity Project's March 31 claim of surpassing the 177,732-signature threshold for a citizen initiative referendum on secession, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation challenges cite treaty rights violations, stalling progress amid ongoing collection until May 2. Recent Pollara polling shows separatism support at 27%, a five-year high but minority level unlikely to pass. Premier Danielle Smith opposes separation, with her government's October 19 referendum focusing on immigration controls and constitutional amendments for greater provincial autonomy, excluding independence. Constitutional secession barriers loom large.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$52,117Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 83.7% implied probability against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, anchored by a court-ordered month-long stay on separatist petition signature validation issued April 10 following First Nations injunction hearings that began April 7. Despite the Alberta Prosperity Project's March 31 claim of surpassing the 177,732-signature threshold for a citizen initiative referendum on secession, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation challenges cite treaty rights violations, stalling progress amid ongoing collection until May 2. Recent Pollara polling shows separatism support at 27%, a five-year high but minority level unlikely to pass. Premier Danielle Smith opposes separation, with her government's October 19 referendum focusing on immigration controls and constitutional amendments for greater provincial autonomy, excluding independence. Constitutional secession barriers loom large.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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