California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+35, reinforced by heavy voter registration advantages and consistent performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon holds the seat after her 2024 victory and benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and limited opposition in the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, where Democratic contenders dominate filings against a single Republican candidate. Trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic win reflects these structural factors, with the general election in November viewed as low-risk absent disruption. A major scandal involving the leading candidate, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift could introduce volatility, though the district's composition creates substantial barriers to such changes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$37,355 Обс.
$37,355 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$37,355 Обс.
$37,355 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,142 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$14,212 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+35, reinforced by heavy voter registration advantages and consistent performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon holds the seat after her 2024 victory and benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and limited opposition in the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, where Democratic contenders dominate filings against a single Republican candidate. Trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic win reflects these structural factors, with the general election in November viewed as low-risk absent disruption. A major scandal involving the leading candidate, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift could introduce volatility, though the district's composition creates substantial barriers to such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$37,355Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+35, reinforced by heavy voter registration advantages and consistent performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon holds the seat after her 2024 victory and benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and limited opposition in the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, where Democratic contenders dominate filings against a single Republican candidate. Trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic win reflects these structural factors, with the general election in November viewed as low-risk absent disruption. A major scandal involving the leading candidate, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift could introduce volatility, though the district's composition creates substantial barriers to such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$37,355Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+35, reinforced by heavy voter registration advantages and consistent performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon holds the seat after her 2024 victory and benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and limited opposition in the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, where Democratic contenders dominate filings against a single Republican candidate. Trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic win reflects these structural factors, with the general election in November viewed as low-risk absent disruption. A major scandal involving the leading candidate, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift could introduce volatility, though the district's composition creates substantial barriers to such changes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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