Recent forecast guidance from regional meteorological models places Beijing's August 4 maximum near 31–33 °C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and elevated humidity expected to moderate peak heating. These conditions create tight clustering in trader consensus around 33 °C (34.5 %) and 34 °C (25 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact convective timing and coverage that could either suppress or allow brief spikes. Historical August averages hover near 30–32 °C, providing context for why outcomes below 30 °C or above 35 °C remain low-probability outliers unless steering patterns shift markedly before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on August 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?
33°C 35%
34°C 25%
32°C 21%
31°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
21%
33°C
35%
34°C
25%
35°C
9%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
1%
33°C 35%
34°C 25%
32°C 21%
31°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
$54 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$60 Обс.
1%
30°C
$31 Обс.
5%
31°C
$78 Обс.
11%
32°C
$16 Обс.
21%
33°C
$132 Обс.
35%
34°C
$33 Обс.
25%
35°C
$485 Обс.
9%
36°C
$124 Обс.
4%
37°C
$193 Обс.
2%
38°C or higher
$33 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional meteorological models places Beijing's August 4 maximum near 31–33 °C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and elevated humidity expected to moderate peak heating. These conditions create tight clustering in trader consensus around 33 °C (34.5 %) and 34 °C (25 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact convective timing and coverage that could either suppress or allow brief spikes. Historical August averages hover near 30–32 °C, providing context for why outcomes below 30 °C or above 35 °C remain low-probability outliers unless steering patterns shift markedly before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,240Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional meteorological models places Beijing's August 4 maximum near 31–33 °C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and elevated humidity expected to moderate peak heating. These conditions create tight clustering in trader consensus around 33 °C (34.5 %) and 34 °C (25 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact convective timing and coverage that could either suppress or allow brief spikes. Historical August averages hover near 30–32 °C, providing context for why outcomes below 30 °C or above 35 °C remain low-probability outliers unless steering patterns shift markedly before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,240Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from regional meteorological models places Beijing's August 4 maximum near 31–33 °C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and elevated humidity expected to moderate peak heating. These conditions create tight clustering in trader consensus around 33 °C (34.5 %) and 34 °C (25 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact convective timing and coverage that could either suppress or allow brief spikes. Historical August averages hover near 30–32 °C, providing context for why outcomes below 30 °C or above 35 °C remain low-probability outliers unless steering patterns shift markedly before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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