Current short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a highest temperature in Busan of 29–31°C on August 18, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 30–31°C. As a coastal city influenced by the East Sea, Busan experiences moderation from marine air masses and sea breezes that cap daytime peaks, while high humidity and residual monsoon moisture support afternoon thundershowers capable of limiting solar heating. Model consensus points to partly to mostly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow, keeping values near the August climatological average of ~30°C; slight variations in cloud timing or wind shift could differentiate a 30°C versus 31°C outcome by 1–2°C. With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance, where any delay in convection or clearer skies would favor the upper end of the range.