Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 12%
78-79°F 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 12%
78-79°F 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$490 Обс.
1%
76-77°F
$575 Обс.
3%
78-79°F
$150 Обс.
11%
80-81°F
$755 Обс.
40%
82-83°F
$243 Обс.
30%
84-85°F
$349 Обс.
12%
86-87°F
$293 Обс.
2%
88-89°F
$354 Обс.
1%
90-91°F
$111 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$153 Обс.
<1%
94°F or higher
$158 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,632Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,632Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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