Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance points to a high of 73–75°F in Chicago on August 23, driven by northwesterly flow advecting cooler air and moderating influence from Lake Michigan. This setup favors the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 46% implied probability, with 76–77°F close behind at 34.5% reflecting minor ensemble spread. Historical August normals near 82°F underscore how current conditions deviate cooler, while afternoon peak timing and any late-day clearing remain key variables. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings ahead of resolution will refine these trader-assessed odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
74-75°F 47%
76-77°F 34%
72-73°F 10%
78-79°F 8%
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
47%
76-77°F
34%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 47%
76-77°F 34%
72-73°F 10%
78-79°F 8%
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
47%
76-77°F
34%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Джерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Джерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance points to a high of 73–75°F in Chicago on August 23, driven by northwesterly flow advecting cooler air and moderating influence from Lake Michigan. This setup favors the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 46% implied probability, with 76–77°F close behind at 34.5% reflecting minor ensemble spread. Historical August normals near 82°F underscore how current conditions deviate cooler, while afternoon peak timing and any late-day clearing remain key variables. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings ahead of resolution will refine these trader-assessed odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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