Recent ensemble forecasts and regional model runs indicate a stable warm air mass over the eastern Mediterranean, with mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly flow expected to keep Istanbul’s August 26 maximum near seasonal norms. This positioning supports the tight market spread between 27°C (46%) and 28°C (37%), as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, or minor cloud cover could shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology shows typical highs of 28–29°C, while current guidance from multiple agencies projects limited deviation absent any approaching frontal systems or strengthened subsidence. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow range most heavily, with probabilities reflecting genuine forecast spread rather than consensus on a single value. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the date will be the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
27°C 46%
28°C 37%
29°C 33%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
10%
26°C
13%
27°C
46%
28°C
37%
29°C
33%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
5%
27°C 46%
28°C 37%
29°C 33%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Обс.
3%
24°C
$0 Обс.
6%
25°C
$15 Обс.
10%
26°C
$49 Обс.
13%
27°C
$15 Обс.
46%
28°C
$0 Обс.
37%
29°C
$0 Обс.
33%
30°C
$0 Обс.
6%
31°C
$0 Обс.
6%
32°C
$0 Обс.
6%
33°C or higher
$0 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts and regional model runs indicate a stable warm air mass over the eastern Mediterranean, with mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly flow expected to keep Istanbul’s August 26 maximum near seasonal norms. This positioning supports the tight market spread between 27°C (46%) and 28°C (37%), as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, or minor cloud cover could shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology shows typical highs of 28–29°C, while current guidance from multiple agencies projects limited deviation absent any approaching frontal systems or strengthened subsidence. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow range most heavily, with probabilities reflecting genuine forecast spread rather than consensus on a single value. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the date will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$80Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts and regional model runs indicate a stable warm air mass over the eastern Mediterranean, with mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly flow expected to keep Istanbul’s August 26 maximum near seasonal norms. This positioning supports the tight market spread between 27°C (46%) and 28°C (37%), as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, or minor cloud cover could shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology shows typical highs of 28–29°C, while current guidance from multiple agencies projects limited deviation absent any approaching frontal systems or strengthened subsidence. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow range most heavily, with probabilities reflecting genuine forecast spread rather than consensus on a single value. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the date will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$80Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts and regional model runs indicate a stable warm air mass over the eastern Mediterranean, with mostly sunny skies and moderate northeasterly flow expected to keep Istanbul’s August 26 maximum near seasonal norms. This positioning supports the tight market spread between 27°C (46%) and 28°C (37%), as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, or minor cloud cover could shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology shows typical highs of 28–29°C, while current guidance from multiple agencies projects limited deviation absent any approaching frontal systems or strengthened subsidence. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow range most heavily, with probabilities reflecting genuine forecast spread rather than consensus on a single value. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the date will be the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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