Recent AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a maximum temperature of 33–34°C in Madrid on September 26, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow and minimal precipitation. This positions 34°C as the market leader at 58% implied probability, reflecting model consensus on diurnal heating beneath high pressure that exceeds the 24.1°C climatological average but stays well below the 34.5°C record. A modest cooling trend from earlier-week peaks and increasing cloud cover limit upside risk to 35°C or higher, while downside to 32°C or below remains low given current thermal profiles. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
34°C 58%
33°C 37%
35°C 17%
32°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 26, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
5%
32°C
15%
33°C
37%
34°C
58%
35°C
17%
36°C
1%
37°C
5%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 58%
33°C 37%
35°C 17%
32°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 26, 2026
29°C or below
$1,030 Обс.
1%
30°C
$0 Обс.
3%
31°C
$0 Обс.
5%
32°C
$0 Обс.
15%
33°C
$26 Обс.
37%
34°C
$132 Обс.
58%
35°C
$0 Обс.
17%
36°C
$5 Обс.
1%
37°C
$0 Обс.
5%
38°C
$0 Обс.
2%
39°C or higher
$206 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a maximum temperature of 33–34°C in Madrid on September 26, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow and minimal precipitation. This positions 34°C as the market leader at 58% implied probability, reflecting model consensus on diurnal heating beneath high pressure that exceeds the 24.1°C climatological average but stays well below the 34.5°C record. A modest cooling trend from earlier-week peaks and increasing cloud cover limit upside risk to 35°C or higher, while downside to 32°C or below remains low given current thermal profiles. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,398Дата завершення
Sep 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a maximum temperature of 33–34°C in Madrid on September 26, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow and minimal precipitation. This positions 34°C as the market leader at 58% implied probability, reflecting model consensus on diurnal heating beneath high pressure that exceeds the 24.1°C climatological average but stays well below the 34.5°C record. A modest cooling trend from earlier-week peaks and increasing cloud cover limit upside risk to 35°C or higher, while downside to 32°C or below remains low given current thermal profiles. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,398Дата завершення
Sep 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...Recent AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a maximum temperature of 33–34°C in Madrid on September 26, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow and minimal precipitation. This positions 34°C as the market leader at 58% implied probability, reflecting model consensus on diurnal heating beneath high pressure that exceeds the 24.1°C climatological average but stays well below the 34.5°C record. A modest cooling trend from earlier-week peaks and increasing cloud cover limit upside risk to 35°C or higher, while downside to 32°C or below remains low given current thermal profiles. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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