Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
35°C 62%
34°C 29%
36°C 13%
32°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
3%
32°C
6%
33°C
6%
34°C
29%
35°C
62%
36°C
13%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 62%
34°C 29%
36°C 13%
32°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
$19 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$0 Обс.
3%
32°C
$0 Обс.
6%
33°C
$0 Обс.
6%
34°C
$0 Обс.
29%
35°C
$127 Обс.
62%
36°C
$0 Обс.
13%
37°C
$4 Обс.
2%
38°C
$0 Обс.
1%
39°C
$0 Обс.
1%
40°C or higher
$251 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$401Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$401Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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