Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Milan on September 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 12?
26°C 51%
25°C 41%
27°C 7%
24°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
41%
26°C
51%
27°C
7%
28°C or higher
1%
26°C 51%
25°C 41%
27°C 7%
24°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$1,201 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$349 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$369 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$210 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$0 Обс.
2%
23°C
$180 Обс.
2%
24°C
$402 Обс.
6%
25°C
$1,968 Обс.
41%
26°C
$874 Обс.
51%
27°C
$303 Обс.
7%
28°C or higher
$208 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,063Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,063Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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