**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
$111,293 Обс.
$111,293 Обс.
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
$111,293 Обс.
$111,293 Обс.
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
$265 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$228 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$19,467 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$11,251 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$12,789 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$20,940 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$16,005 Обс.
100%
33°C
$26,181 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$3,661 Обс.
<1%
35°C
$274 Обс.
<1%
36°C or higher
$230 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value.
Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$111,293Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value.
Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$111,293Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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