**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest NYC temperature of 70-71°F (51% implied probability) on September 13, 2026, with 68-69°F (25%) and 72-73°F (21.5%) as the main alternatives.** This positioning reflects official National Weather Service and model consensus for an overnight low near 71-72°F amid persistent overcast skies, widespread rain and thunderstorms, and elevated humidity levels exceeding 80-90%. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, while light southeast-to-northwest winds and the urban heat island effect further suppress temperature drops. Forecasters from multiple sources, including NWS and ensemble models, project a daily high near 80°F with minimal diurnal range due to the humid, rainy pattern associated with a passing low-pressure system and trailing moisture. Recent data shifts reinforce this outlook: updated model runs show continued cloud cover and precipitation through the morning, keeping surface temperatures anchored in the low 70s rather than allowing clearer skies that could produce sharper overnight dips. Historical September norms for NYC lows trend lower (mid-60s), but the current synoptic setup deviates from climatology. Key upcoming resolution inputs include official Central Park or LaGuardia observations for the calendar-day minimum. Any unexpected clearing or stronger winds could nudge readings toward the 68-69°F bin, while sustained humidity and rain lock in the 70-71°F range. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based forecast consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on September 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 13?
70-71°F 51%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 25%
66-67°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
51%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 51%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 25%
66-67°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
63°F or below
$729 Обс.
1%
64-65°F
$479 Обс.
2%
66-67°F
$90 Обс.
10%
68-69°F
$751 Обс.
25%
70-71°F
$431 Обс.
51%
72-73°F
$1,817 Обс.
22%
74-75°F
$1,275 Обс.
<1%
76-77°F
$193 Обс.
<1%
78-79°F
$506 Обс.
<1%
80-81°F
$112 Обс.
<1%
82°F or higher
$112 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest NYC temperature of 70-71°F (51% implied probability) on September 13, 2026, with 68-69°F (25%) and 72-73°F (21.5%) as the main alternatives.** This positioning reflects official National Weather Service and model consensus for an overnight low near 71-72°F amid persistent overcast skies, widespread rain and thunderstorms, and elevated humidity levels exceeding 80-90%.
These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, while light southeast-to-northwest winds and the urban heat island effect further suppress temperature drops. Forecasters from multiple sources, including NWS and ensemble models, project a daily high near 80°F with minimal diurnal range due to the humid, rainy pattern associated with a passing low-pressure system and trailing moisture.
Recent data shifts reinforce this outlook: updated model runs show continued cloud cover and precipitation through the morning, keeping surface temperatures anchored in the low 70s rather than allowing clearer skies that could produce sharper overnight dips. Historical September norms for NYC lows trend lower (mid-60s), but the current synoptic setup deviates from climatology.
Key upcoming resolution inputs include official Central Park or LaGuardia observations for the calendar-day minimum. Any unexpected clearing or stronger winds could nudge readings toward the 68-69°F bin, while sustained humidity and rain lock in the 70-71°F range. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,495Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest NYC temperature of 70-71°F (51% implied probability) on September 13, 2026, with 68-69°F (25%) and 72-73°F (21.5%) as the main alternatives.** This positioning reflects official National Weather Service and model consensus for an overnight low near 71-72°F amid persistent overcast skies, widespread rain and thunderstorms, and elevated humidity levels exceeding 80-90%.
These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, while light southeast-to-northwest winds and the urban heat island effect further suppress temperature drops. Forecasters from multiple sources, including NWS and ensemble models, project a daily high near 80°F with minimal diurnal range due to the humid, rainy pattern associated with a passing low-pressure system and trailing moisture.
Recent data shifts reinforce this outlook: updated model runs show continued cloud cover and precipitation through the morning, keeping surface temperatures anchored in the low 70s rather than allowing clearer skies that could produce sharper overnight dips. Historical September norms for NYC lows trend lower (mid-60s), but the current synoptic setup deviates from climatology.
Key upcoming resolution inputs include official Central Park or LaGuardia observations for the calendar-day minimum. Any unexpected clearing or stronger winds could nudge readings toward the 68-69°F bin, while sustained humidity and rain lock in the 70-71°F range. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,495Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest NYC temperature of 70-71°F (51% implied probability) on September 13, 2026, with 68-69°F (25%) and 72-73°F (21.5%) as the main alternatives.** This positioning reflects official National Weather Service and model consensus for an overnight low near 71-72°F amid persistent overcast skies, widespread rain and thunderstorms, and elevated humidity levels exceeding 80-90%. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, while light southeast-to-northwest winds and the urban heat island effect further suppress temperature drops. Forecasters from multiple sources, including NWS and ensemble models, project a daily high near 80°F with minimal diurnal range due to the humid, rainy pattern associated with a passing low-pressure system and trailing moisture. Recent data shifts reinforce this outlook: updated model runs show continued cloud cover and precipitation through the morning, keeping surface temperatures anchored in the low 70s rather than allowing clearer skies that could produce sharper overnight dips. Historical September norms for NYC lows trend lower (mid-60s), but the current synoptic setup deviates from climatology. Key upcoming resolution inputs include official Central Park or LaGuardia observations for the calendar-day minimum. Any unexpected clearing or stronger winds could nudge readings toward the 68-69°F bin, while sustained humidity and rain lock in the 70-71°F range. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based forecast consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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