Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and regional forecasts positions Paris's September 18 high near 21–22°C, aligning with the historical average of 21.2°C and driving the 44% market-implied probability for 22°C. A moderating westerly flow following earlier September warmth, combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, supports modest daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air. Model runs show low precipitation risk and stable pressure patterns, limiting upside potential for 24°C+ outcomes while keeping cooler 20°C or below scenarios less likely absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on September 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 18?
22°C 45%
23°C 37%
21°C 23%
20°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
14%
21°C
23%
22°C
45%
23°C
28%
24°C
11%
25°C
13%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 45%
23°C 37%
21°C 23%
20°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$0 Обс.
3%
19°C
$15 Обс.
4%
20°C
$0 Обс.
14%
21°C
$0 Обс.
23%
22°C
$8 Обс.
45%
23°C
$204 Обс.
28%
24°C
$3 Обс.
11%
25°C
$0 Обс.
13%
26°C
$0 Обс.
3%
27°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and regional forecasts positions Paris's September 18 high near 21–22°C, aligning with the historical average of 21.2°C and driving the 44% market-implied probability for 22°C. A moderating westerly flow following earlier September warmth, combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, supports modest daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air. Model runs show low precipitation risk and stable pressure patterns, limiting upside potential for 24°C+ outcomes while keeping cooler 20°C or below scenarios less likely absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$174Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and regional forecasts positions Paris's September 18 high near 21–22°C, aligning with the historical average of 21.2°C and driving the 44% market-implied probability for 22°C. A moderating westerly flow following earlier September warmth, combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, supports modest daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air. Model runs show low precipitation risk and stable pressure patterns, limiting upside potential for 24°C+ outcomes while keeping cooler 20°C or below scenarios less likely absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$174Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and regional forecasts positions Paris's September 18 high near 21–22°C, aligning with the historical average of 21.2°C and driving the 44% market-implied probability for 22°C. A moderating westerly flow following earlier September warmth, combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, supports modest daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air. Model runs show low precipitation risk and stable pressure patterns, limiting upside potential for 24°C+ outcomes while keeping cooler 20°C or below scenarios less likely absent unexpected cloud cover or frontal shifts. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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