**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under stable high pressure with light winds and mostly sunny conditions on August 13, supporting daily maxima near 24–25°C.** This aligns with the tight market split between those two outcomes (35% and 31.5%), while 23°C holds notable probability amid possible greater cloud cover or slightly stronger northeasterly flow. Ensemble spread remains modest at this short lead time, reflecting typical uncertainty in peak afternoon heating rather than any major regime shift. Historical August averages around 23–24°C provide context, and no heat advection or subsidence strengthening is expected to push values toward the lower-probability 26°C+ bins before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 13?
24°C 34%
25°C 32%
23°C 19%
22°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 13, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
19%
24°C
34%
25°C
32%
26°C
7%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 34%
25°C 32%
23°C 19%
22°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 13, 2026
20°C or below
$12 Обс.
1%
21°C
$12 Обс.
1%
22°C
$20 Обс.
8%
23°C
$17 Обс.
19%
24°C
$0 Обс.
34%
25°C
$16 Обс.
32%
26°C
$0 Обс.
7%
27°C
$22 Обс.
3%
28°C
$12 Обс.
5%
29°C
$12 Обс.
1%
30°C or higher
$12 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under stable high pressure with light winds and mostly sunny conditions on August 13, supporting daily maxima near 24–25°C.** This aligns with the tight market split between those two outcomes (35% and 31.5%), while 23°C holds notable probability amid possible greater cloud cover or slightly stronger northeasterly flow. Ensemble spread remains modest at this short lead time, reflecting typical uncertainty in peak afternoon heating rather than any major regime shift. Historical August averages around 23–24°C provide context, and no heat advection or subsidence strengthening is expected to push values toward the lower-probability 26°C+ bins before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$135Дата завершення
Aug 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under stable high pressure with light winds and mostly sunny conditions on August 13, supporting daily maxima near 24–25°C.** This aligns with the tight market split between those two outcomes (35% and 31.5%), while 23°C holds notable probability amid possible greater cloud cover or slightly stronger northeasterly flow. Ensemble spread remains modest at this short lead time, reflecting typical uncertainty in peak afternoon heating rather than any major regime shift. Historical August averages around 23–24°C provide context, and no heat advection or subsidence strengthening is expected to push values toward the lower-probability 26°C+ bins before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$135Дата завершення
Aug 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under stable high pressure with light winds and mostly sunny conditions on August 13, supporting daily maxima near 24–25°C.** This aligns with the tight market split between those two outcomes (35% and 31.5%), while 23°C holds notable probability amid possible greater cloud cover or slightly stronger northeasterly flow. Ensemble spread remains modest at this short lead time, reflecting typical uncertainty in peak afternoon heating rather than any major regime shift. Historical August averages around 23–24°C provide context, and no heat advection or subsidence strengthening is expected to push values toward the lower-probability 26°C+ bins before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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